Headlines:Markets:JPY leads, USD lag on the dayEuropean equities a touch higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%US 10-year yields down 2.6 bps to 3.618%Gold up 0.3% to $2,522.42WTI crude up 2.6% to $67.49Bitcoin down 1.4% to $56,770The most interesting part of the...
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 6 September +1.4% vs +1.6% prior
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Feeding the gold beast
The bulls have been huffing and puffing over the last three weeks but they haven't blown open the door for a stronger technical breakout yet. Gold price action has been consolidating in a bit of a range recently and the next trade is to arguably go with the break that...
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – The market has become sensitive to soft data
Fundamental OverviewLast Friday, the Russell 2000 sold off following the weaker than expected NFP report even though the details were better than the prior month. The technical break below the key support around the 2120 level eventually increased the bearish...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The pair bounces on a key support
Fundamental OverviewThe bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an...
What inflation? That is what the bond market is continuing to say so far this week
Treasuries are keeping strongly bid so far this week and we're seeing some key levels being challenged. 10-year yields are down to their lowest since June last year, down to 3.61% currently. Meanwhile, 2-year yields are down to their lowest in almost two years as it...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – The US CPI and ECB decision in focus
Fundamental OverviewThe bullish momentum in the USD is starting to fade as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low. There wasn’t an...
Fed to cut rates by 25 bps at each of the remaining three policy meetings this year – poll
92 of 101 economists expect a 25 bps rate cut next week65 of 95 economists expect three 25 bps rate cuts for the remainder of the year54 of 71 economists believe that the Fed cutting by 50 bps at any of the meetings as 'unlikely'On the final point, five other...
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
Why it's important?The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact,...
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Expectations for a 50 bps cut remain alive
Fundamental OverviewThe Yen is having another good week as the USDJPY pair dropped to new lows as Treasury yields continue to fall. We had two possible catalysts yesterday. The first one was the much weaker than expected US NFIB Index which dropped to a 3 month low....
European equities nudge up at the open to start the day with slight gains
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UK July monthly GDP 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected
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BOJ’s Nakagawa: Hard to comment on timing of next rate hike
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Fed rate cut pricing continues to bounce around
The pricing there is reflected in the fall in bond yields this week, with 10-year Treasury yields now hitting its lowest since June last year. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut next week now stands at ~35%, up from around ~25% early Monday. It's still down from the near...
Yields fall reverberates to broader markets to start the day
We're already starting to see some notable market moves on the day ahead of European trading. I would argue the main culprit to be the bond market, after the move there yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields fell below the threshold of what might've resembled a short-term...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen hit an eight month high on BOJ comments
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US politics – Taylor Swift says she will be voting for Harris
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US Vice President Harris’ campaign is pushing for a second debate with Trump
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Bank of Japan Nakagawa says ready to raise rates if inflation on track – recap
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Half way through the debate and US Treasuries are rallying. EUR higher also
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