As the market digests the US jobs report, the stock market is casting its vote. The major indices were much lower in premarket ahead of the jobs report. Since then, all of those declines have been retraced. The major indices are opening marginally higher. The NASDAQ...
Kickstart the FX trading day for Sept 6 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
The US jobs report was a bit weaker than expectations especially when you consider the -86,000 revision to the prior month's. Nonfarm payroll rose by 142K lower than the 161K estimate but the unemployment rate did fall to 4.2% from 4.3%. The USD dollar had an...
Williams Q&A: Jobs data consistent with a cooling economy
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Timiraos: The jobs report doesn’t neatly resolve the 25 versus 50 basis point debate
The market is now at 51% for 50 bps and 49% for 25 bps -- almost as close as possible.Nick Timiraos from the WSJ highlights what the jobs report means:There was a chance the jobs report would provide an obvious signal on the size of the first cut, and futures-market...
Fed’s Williams: Unemployment rate still low despite rise
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The market takes the non-farm payrolls report as dovish but focus now on Fed speakers
At 8:45 am ET, we will hear from NY Fed President John Williams and then at 11 am ET, we will hear from Fed Governor Chris Waller. Those are two heavyweights at the Fed and they were no-doubt scheduled to give the market a nudge on the FOMC's thinking ahead of the...
Canada August employment change 22.1 versus 25.0K estimate
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US August non-farm payrolls +142K vs +160K expected
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Locked and loaded for the August edition of non-farm payrolls– why it tends to disappoint
Welcome to the main event of the week.The non-farm payrolls report for August is due at the bottom of the hour and Canada will be releasing its jobs report at the same time. The market is pricing in a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut from the Fed this month and that will...
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Nervy markets awaiting the US jobs report
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Consolidation ahead of the US NFP report
Fundamental OverviewIt’s been a rough week for crude oil as the price dropped more than 6% on renewed growth fears amid a couple of soft US data. The delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t spark a rally but it helped to slow down the bearish...
EUR/CHF may look to revisit record low on any NFP angst
The plunge in early August when markets were throwing a tantrum was held by the December 2023 lows, at least on the daily chart. But even so, the pair has been trending in a lower highs, lower lows pattern ever since June this year.EUR/CHF daily chartThe trend speaks...
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Growth fears weigh on small cap stocks
Fundamental OverviewThis week the growth fears came back as the we got a couple of soft US data. Most of the weakness can be attributed to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which disappointed as it missed expectations, and the new orders index dropped further into...
Eurozone Q2 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimate
Prior +0.3%Looking at the breakdown, household consumption was more or less negligible on the quarter and that is the same for changes in inventories. Government expenditure contributed 0.1% while gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.5%. The latter was offset by...
What are the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
Why it's important?The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact,...
Gold Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US NFP
Fundamental OverviewGold has been rallying steadily this week since bouncing from the bottom of the recent range. The soft US Job Openings on Wednesday gave it the tailwind to push into the key resistance around the 2530 level. This move has been driven by falling...
Risk on the retreat as bond yields fall
The angst in markets is certainly showing up early today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. This comes as bond yields are dipping, with 10-year yields in the US falling to below 3.70% - down 3.8 bps on the day.It's all positioning...
USD/JPY extends fall alongside bond yields to start the session
USD/JPY vs US Treasury 10-year yields (%) hourly chart10-year Treasury yields are now down nearly 4 bps to under 3.70% and that is adding some weight to USD/JPY. The pair is now dragged down by 0.9% to near 142.00 with the 5 August low of 141.68 in focus. Equities are...
European equities open slightly lower to kick start the day
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