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Forget about the win rate

Forget about the win rate

“It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong”. This quote from George Soros sums up perfectly what trading is all about. Beginner traders don’t want to experience the pain of loss, so they...

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A June rate cut beckoning for the BOE?

A June rate cut beckoning for the BOE?

In terms of market pricing, the first full 25 bps rate cut is currently baked in for August. But the odds of a June move are at ~54% currently. And for the year as a whole, traders are pricing in ~56 bps worth of rate cuts at the moment. So, what are the major banks...

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FX stays more muted on the day

FX stays more muted on the day

The euro is mildly higher but as the range for EUR/USD holds within 20 pips, it isn't really saying much. Besides, the pair is still keeping below its 200-day moving average of 1.0790 and the 1.0800 mark for now. The rest of the dollar pairs are also not showing much...

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Time for some profit taking ahead of the US CPI?

Time for some profit taking ahead of the US CPI?

Last Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report surprised to the downside with a big drop from 77.2 to 67.4 while the consensus was expecting just a slight tick lower to 76.0. It's not yet clear which weighed more on the sentiment between inflation...

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Market Outlook for the Week of 13 – 17 May

Market Outlook for the Week of 13 – 17 May

The week begins with a relatively quiet start on Monday with a focus on New Zealand's inflation expectations survey q/q. On Tuesday, the United Kingdom will see the release of the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile,...

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Switzerland Q2 consumer confidence -24 vs -26 prior

Switzerland Q2 consumer confidence -24 vs -26 prior

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...

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Time to go fishing

Time to go fishing

Jesse LivermoreJesse Livermore once said "There's a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing". This quote couldn't be more true for today as the lack of notable economic releases and the waiting for the US CPI report will likely keep the markets at...

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FX option expiries for 13 May 10am New York cut

FX option expiries for 13 May 10am New York cut

There is just two to take note of, as highlighted in bold.They are both for EUR/USD and layered close by at the 1.0750-55 level. That should see price action keep more compact in and around current levels in the session ahead at least. The 100-hour moving average for...

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US data in the spotlight this week

US data in the spotlight this week

This is one of my favourite strips over the years. And it is still very much relevant. As we look to the new week, it's all about US data that will drive the mood in broader markets. We've already gotten a teaser last week from a couple of smaller releases but this...

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