The stock market trades at a 3-week high after significant support from the latest earning reports and US employment data. Economists continue to expect a rate cut no earlier than September 2024 despite the US unemployment rate rising to 3.9%. The US Dollar Index...
Germany April construction PMI 37.5 vs 38.3 prior
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European equities keep up the positive momentum to start the day
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – What changed after the RBA?
The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the...
France March trade balance -€5.5 billion vs -€5.2 billion prior
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Japan business federation chairman says USD/JPY above 150 is too much
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How has the RBA rates pricing changed after the policy decision today?
Coming into today, traders were pricing in a probability of ~41% for an August rate hike. Right now, that is seen somewhere in the range of ~12% to ~16% as the OIS market is still fluctuating. In terms of basis points, the former was ~10 bps while the latter is 3-4...
FX option expiries for 7 May 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold.The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 level. It isn't one that holds much technical significance but could play a role in keeping price action more sticky if we do see more of a downside shove later in...
Germany March industrial orders -0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expected
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Germany March trade balance €22.3 billion vs €22.2 billion expected
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UK April Halifax house prices +0.1% vs -1.0% m/m prior
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Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2.3% vs 2.3% expected
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RBA’s Bullock: We might have to hike rates if inflation takes markedly longer to fall
But that is not part of our central forecast at the momentWe have not explicitly said we might hike rates againBut as per the statement, we are "not ruling anything in or out" for nowMarket pricing still feels rather reasonably balanced at the momentBut it tells us...
RBA’s Bullock: Rates are at the right level to get inflation back to target
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A slight setback for the aussie on the RBA decision
AUD/USD hourly chartThere was no explicit hawkish message from the RBA in the policy statement today. But they did acknowledge that the recent progress on inflation has slowed down, while maintaining their forward guidance of "not ruling anything in or out". The next...
RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected
Prior 4.35%Inflation continues to moderate, but is declining more slowly than expectedThe economic outlook remains uncertainRecent data have demonstrated that the process of returning inflation to target is unlikely to be smoothPersistence of services inflation is a...
RBA in focus, what levels to watch out for in AUD/USD?
The RBA is back in action this month and things are certainly getting quite interesting for Australia's central bank. We've gone from thinking about rate cuts to rate hikes now. So, the question is will the RBA acknowledge those developments? And if so, what sort of...
RBA decision coming up, previews – on hold but hawkish
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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Kanda ignites USD/JPY jump
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Heads up for CAD traders – BoC’s Rogers speaking on Tuesday
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