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Earlier this year, the BLS reported that a subset of files were released prior to the April CPI report, leading to a premature move in the Treasury market. Previously, a BLS economys shared undisclosed technical calculations with some 'super-user' economists, also...

US CPI y/yIs the Federal Reserve stalling in its battle against inflation?That's the question the market will be mulling on Wednesday at 8:30 am ET as November inflation numbers are released in the CPI report. The headline inflation number is expected to tick up to...

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.59. That is up $0.22 or 0.32%. The high price for the day extended to $69.02. The low price was at $67.74. Looking at the hourly chart, the price tried to stay below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below), but...

The US dollar has been a strong performer this year and it's tough to bet against it going forward given the setup for US economic outperformance. That said, it's clearly a crowded trade and Morgan Stanley's David Adams thinks it's too crowded.“Based on our...

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...

The US treasury will auction off $58B of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the first of three this week. The treasury will auction 10 year notes (well 9 year and 11 month) tomorrow and 30 year bonds on Thursday. After trading above 4.20% for most of...

The EIA is out with the latest STEO.We expect the Brent crude oil spot price will remain close to its current level in 2025, averaging $74 per barrel for the yearThey see the oil market as 'relatively balanced'US production seen at 13.52 mbpd vs 13.53 mbpd prior (vs...

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...

Goldman Sachs forecasts moderate gains in both headline and core US CPI for November, driven by rising used car prices, airfares, and energy costs. The firm expects the core CPI to rise by 0.28% MoM (vs. 0.3% consensus), translating to a 3.27% YoY increase. Headline...

This isn't a market moving comment but it advances the debate around what sort of stimulus is coming from China this week.I think the overall negative sentiment around China -- particularly in the long term -- is way overdone. Yes, the stock market is weak but a good...

Barak Ravid from Axios reports on a meeting between Israeli and Egyptian intelligence officials but also notes:"Until recently, the thinking in Israel was that Hamas doesn’t want a deal - now it seems that there is a shift and that Hamas may have changed its mind....

AUDUSD dailyThe Australian dollar is at the lows of the day, down 67 pips to 0.6370.The drop erases a strong gain yesterday that came on optimism about China stimulus. However the Chinese market slumped today on pessimism that Beijing will actually deliver stronger...

Gold dailyGold is up $30 today to build on a similar-sized gain yesterday.Both gains come on the heels of the People's Bank of China resuming gold purchases in November for the first time in six months. China is looking to diversify reserves into gold and away from US...

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% with Nasdaq futures doing slightly better.One drag is Oracle, which is down 7.5% in the pre-market after earnings and revenue that missed estimates. Oracle also issued guidance for the current quarter, calling for revenue growth of 7%...