It's a buy-everything market today, with one big exception.Oil fell sharply today in the past two hours. The catalyst: US oil drilling rigs rose by 5 in the latest Baker Hughes weekly count. OPEC+ now has around 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity and there's...
The market-Fed reaction function has changed
This has gotten out of hand -- The rate cut pricing just won't stop.US 2s are down 15.6 bps to 4.55% and Fed funds futures are pricing in 132 bps of cuts next year. Pricing for the first cut on March 20 is now at 73%.It's tough to square this with a series of Fed...
Gold touches an all-time high at $2075
Gold dailyThis is the moment of truth for gold. I like the setup here, as I always do on December seasonals. In addition, the Fed is going to pivot dovishly and the dollar looks out-of-gas.Gold is now up $35 on the day at $2071. I don't get the sense that gold is...
Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 1.2% vs 1.8% prior
The latest tracker from the Atlanta Fed fits into the market's narrative of falling growth. The problem would be if it falls below 0% but 1.2% is still fine."After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report...
Baker Hughes US oil rig count 505 vs 500 prior
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Everything is up today. Is sentiment too bubbly?
Risk trades are running wild today. November was one of the best months for equities ever and we've picked right up in December with small caps joining the party and the Russell 2000 up 2.1%. Bonds are bid as well with yields at multi-month lows across the board. In...
Weekly Market Recap (27-01 December)
BoJ Governor Ueda continues to be uncertain about them hitting the 2% target sustainably:Cannot say with conviction that inflation will hit 2% sustainably.Japan economy is recovering moderately.The output gap has narrowed to near zero.Some positive signs seen in wages...
Powell Q&A: Inflation is still well-above target but moving in the right direction
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European equity close: Continuing where we left off in November
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Powell Q&A starts now. Watch live
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Powell: FOMC is ‘moving forward carefully’ as risks around rates becoming more balanced
It's premature to say that mon pol is restrictive enoughFed will raise rates if needed to lower inflationFed is making rate decisions meeting by meetingUncertainty over economic outlook is 'unusually elevated'Fed funds range well into restrictive territoryFed has made...
Two comments I’m expecting to hear from Powell at the top of the hour
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USD/JPY slumps after ISM manufacturing and Goolsbee
On the face of it, today's miss in the US ISM manufacturing survey wasn't a big one. It was at 46.7 compared to 47.6. But I don't think the consensus was accurate for what the market was expecting due to an extremely strong regional print yesterday. That had people...
EUR/USD Price Forecast: EUR/USD Prints Fresh Weekly with 200-Day MA in Sight
EUR/USD, PRICE FORECAST:MOST READ: Oil Price Forecast: WTI Slips as OPEC+ Voluntary Cuts Fail to ConvinceThe Euro continued its slide today falling toward the 1.0850 as the DXX continued its advance in the European and early parts of the US session. The US Dollar for...
Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation is coming down exactly as we want
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US October construction spending +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
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US November ISM manufacturing PMI 46.7 vs 47.6 expected
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US S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for November 49.4 vs 49.4 prelim
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Canada November S&P Global manufacturing PMI 47.7 vs 48.6 prior
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Powell and ISM manufacturing highlight the US economic calendar
Jerome Powell reading by the fire (AI image)Happy Friday.The market is in a bit of a lull today and that's understandable given all the drama of November and that it's the first trading day of the month. The event everyone is waiting for is coming at 11 am ET with...