Fox News is projecting that Republicans have won 50 seats so far, with 51 needed for a majority. The NYT projection has Republicans at 48 seats, but Ohio looks almost certainly to be theirs with Bernie Moreno leading by 5 points against incumbent Sherrod Brown after...
GBPUSD moves down to test 50% and swing area down to 1.28449
The GBPUSD has moved down to test the 50% and a swing area between 1.2844 and 1.28719. The midpoint level is at 1.2866. The low price reached 1.2864 and is bouncing modestly. The bounce will target the low from two weeks ago at 1.29064. Staying below keeps the seller...
Betting markets see Trump victory as a shoo-in now
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Reminder: Here are some of the widely-touted Trump trades
There have been some big moves so far on the assumption of a red sweep but history shows that we're only getting started. Here is the matrix from Deutsche Bank on the red sweep trades:Separately, here are seven equity-specific Trump trades from Jim Cramer. On top of...
New York Times ‘Needle’ puts Trump at 88% chance of winning presidency
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It’s looking more and more like a red sweep
It looks like Republicans will have free reign to administer the legislative agenda for at least the next two years.The bond market has been sniffing this out for awhile and is wilting today, with 30-year yields now up 19 bps on the assumption that Trump tax cuts will...
Trump holds slender lead with over half the votes in for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (59% of votes in)Wisconsin: Trump +1.6 (55% of votes in)The other key one under the Rust Belt is Michigan but the state has so far only counted 25% of votes. It is also Trump favoured at +0.6 now but with every percentage, that seems to swing...
The peso signals Mexico isn’t looking forward to four more years of Trump
One of the clearest Trump trades is selling the Mexican peso and it's a runaway move today, similar (though at a much smaller magnitude) to what happened in 2016 when Trump beat Clinton.That night, USD/MXN rose to 19.8 from 18.3. It continued the following day at...
Georgia the next swing state to be called for Trump
Given the way the votes were playing out, this was only a matter of time. And less of a bellwether if one would call it as compared to North Carolina earlier.The more important ones to watch will be the Rust Belt states now and those are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and...
Pundits (finally) call Georgia for Trump
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ICYMI – Saudis cut oil price to Asia and US, raised to Europe
Saudi Arabia's state run Aramco cut oil prices for buyers in Asia and the US for December.Cut Arab Light crude grade to Asia by 25 cents / bblraised to Europe by 15 centsto the US, cut by 15 cents (Argus sour crude)Saudi's seem to be expecting a slow down in Asian...
10 year up 16.5 basis points HIghest since early July.
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Trump trades continue to extend. Bitcoin hits a record high at $75,000
As the votes come in, the market is increasingly confident that Trump will win return to the White House.It's a consistent picture in bonds, the US dollar and equity futures. One of the clearest illustrations is bitcoin, which just touched $75,000 for the first time...
Nevada exit poll highlights Trump’s big improvement among hispanic voters
Preliminary results of Nevada exit poll:&]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8" depth="0" data-v-7458bf22>Trump wins 52% of voters age 65+, Harris wins 45%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 39%; Trump share down 1 pt...
UK government confirms spread of bird flu in commercial poultry
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Dollar rejoices as Trump looks to pass North Carolina test
North Carolina is the first swing state to be called (by Decision Desk HQ) in favour of Trump and markets are responding accordingly. That being said, this is a test that Trump needs to pass in order to stand a chance at winning presidency. It was the only swing state...
China state banks seen selling USD/CNY – intervention to slow yuan drop
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USD/JPY jumps above 153.80
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
USDCAD moves up to hourly MAs
The USDCAD moved down to test the target support at the end of the trading day yesterday at 1.3813. The low price reached 1.3817 and the price decline slowed. The pair has moved back higher on the back of the early success of the Trump team. The price has now moved up...
Exit polls released for Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona
These are critical states for the election:Preliminary results of Michigan exit poll:&]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8" depth="0" data-v-7458bf22>Trump wins 42% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 56%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 53% of...