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Pennsylvania exit poll is a mixed bag for both candidates but some bright signs for Harris
Preliminary results of Pennsylvania exit poll from Edison Research:&]:mt-2 list-disc space-y-2 pl-8" depth="0" data-v-7458bf22>Trump wins 43% of women voters, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 50% of white women voters, Harris wins...
As the later country votes in Indiana come in, they show Trump running stronger
Earlier today, I highlighted that Harris was running better in Sullivan county in Indiana, which was one of the first counties to report. Well now, with 98% of the votes counted, Trump is running better than he did in 2020 by about 1 point. That's a good sign for the...
Bitcoin is running higher
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Trump trades continue to rally as his odds improve
All the Trump trades have climbed as election results from Georgia and Florida come in.Trump is running decidedly better in Florida and it's safe to say he has won the state. The stronger vote there bodes well for him but him winning that state isn't really a...
US dollar firms across the board as Trump trades climb
I'm not sure what the FX market is trying to tell us today but all of the USD declines from earlier today has been erased.EURUSD 10 minsThe main argument for a dollar rally that I've heard in the past month is a red sweep. The idea here is that Trump and Republicans...
Japan October services PMI 49.7 (preliminary was 49.3)
Japan Jibun Bank / S&P Global Services PMI (October) 49.7flash was 49.3prior was 53.1 Composite 49.6prior 52.0The report notes that momentum in Japan's service sector faltered sharply at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, as companies experienced their...
USD moves higher as bias tips to Trump early
The independent voters which account for 31% of the Georgia votes are leaning 54% to 43% for Trump. That was reverse from 2020 with Biden gaining from the independent voters.. Florida numbers are higher for Trump vs 2020 with 50% in and Trump leading 53.2% vs 45.9% in...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1011 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
USD big swings – careful out there!
Asian timezone participants are well versed in thin liquidity trade, we see it every Monday morning. It's the case today also, markets are going to shoved around on US election counting news. Be careful, your fills may be further away from where you click the buttons....
Reminder – the states to watch in the US election
We are beginning to get US election results coming through, with some states being 'called' by pundits. Don't pay too much attention to places that are solidly Red or Blue. For example, Harris has been declared the winner in Vermont. Which was expected. Trump has been...
Georgia exit poll: Trump running better than 2020 with older voters, worse with younger
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Bank of Japan minutes – BOJ will continue rate hikes if economic & price forecasts met
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
County-level data looks good for Harris so far, but there are caveats
There is a pretty clear picture in the early vote in Indiana and Kansas that shows Kamala Harris running 3-4 percentage points better than Biden did in 2020.With that, we've seen a tick higher in Harris odds on Kalshi to 45% from 42% in the past 30 minutes.The big...
Latest from Citi on US equites – “sell a Trump rally or buy a Harris dip”
A snippet while we await some results out of the US election. This via an analyst at Citi speaking in a CNBC interview on Tuesday before polls closed.In brief:starting point is fairly extended valuation ... predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into...
Reuters Tankan shows manufacturing index dipping in November to +5 (prior +7)
Reuters Tankan is a monthly report whereas the Bank of Japan Tankan is quarterly (more on these two surveys below).Respondents citing worries over China and ... wait for it ... high inflation. November manufacturing index +5prior +7 in OctoberNon-manufacturing +19 in...
Some other poll information: 67% see economy not so good or poor
Some other poll results looking at the economy.NOTE that 31% of the voters viewed the economy as the most important issue.Conditions of the nations Economy:5% Excellernt28% Good35% Not so good32% PoorDespite the US stock indices near all time highs and up over 20% for...
New Zealand employment report recap – nothing to shift the RBNZ’s view
The data is here:Westpac have a handy summary up, we don’t think that there’s anything in today’s figures that would shift the RBNZ’s thinking for its next policy decision at the end of this monthLink to the full piece is here.My really concise summary of their piece...
Australian Treasury official speaking – headline inflation slowing … but
Secretary to the Australian Treasury, Dr Steven Kennedy, is giving testimony in the Australian parliament, at the Senate Budget Estimates, Economics Legislation Committee.You can view the live event here.In brief:Interest rates will come down, but not to pre-pandemic...
Preliminary Exit poll results from Arizona from Edison Research. Higher Hispanic voters
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