The market has reacted in a hawkish way across the board after the FOMC decision.The statement removed a line saying 'inflation has made progress' and that's given it more of a neutral message than the 46 bps priced into the market.The reaction has been a roughly 25...
A comparison of the December 2024/January 2025 FOMC statements
December 18, 2024January 29, 2025Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. ESTRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlierThe unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in the year,...
The full statement from the January 2025 FOMC meeting
January 29, 2025Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. ESTRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions...
Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%
There was no expectation of a cut todayThe Fed had cut at the prior three meetings for a total of 100 bpsThe reference in the prior statement about inflation making progress towards 2% goal is removedThe Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and...
Earnings after the close include Meta, Microsoft and Tesla. What is expected?
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For reference: Here was the December FOMC statement
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US stocks fall to session lows as Nvidia drops 6.6%
NVDA dailyThe biggest company in the world (or at least it was on Friday) is bouncing around like a small-cap stock. It rebounded huge yesterday but is under pressure again today. Perhaps the tell yesterday was that it rallied far more than other beaten-up...
What’s priced in for the Federal Reserve ahead of today’s FOMC decision
Here is the ranking of things that matter to the market right now:1) Tariff news2) AI news........3) The FOMCI don't expect today's rate announcement to be a big market mover but, if anything, there are risks that Powell pivots more-strongly to neutral. That could...
Lutnick: Chinese tariffs should be the highest
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More from Lutnick:DeepSeek was able to create AI dirt cheap, but leveraging US technology
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If Canada addresses flow of fentanyl into the US, there will be no tariffs
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USDCHF backs off highs as the market prepares for the FOMC rate decision
The USDCHF has eased slightly ahead of the FOMC rate decision, retreating below key resistance levels: the swing high at 0.9077 and the 200-hour moving average (MA) at 0.9068. Reclaiming these levels would shift the technical bias in favor of buyers.On the downside,...
Commerce Secretary nominee says he prefers ‘across-the-board’ tariffs
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As Macklem gets underway, the bullish bias in the USDCAD has been compromised
The USDCAD attempted to break above the critical "red box" resistance area, previously identified as a key zone to clear and sustain. While the pair briefly surpassed the upper limit of 1.4466 ahead of the rate decision, it only reached 1.4464 before reversing...
Macklem Q&A: Movement in the Canadian dollar hasn’t constrained us so far
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There is a key line in BOC Governor Macklem’s opening statement
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is set to speak momentarily but the BOC has already published his opening statement.It highlights a stance that's more-neutral than the market anticipated."Absent the threat of tariffs, the risks to the inflation outlook are...
EIA weekly crude oil inventory 3.463 million versus 3.194 million build estimate
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow slashed to 2.3% from 3.2%
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AUDUSD moves lower helped by lower Australian CPI data overnight
The AUDUSD felt lower yesterday and for the most part stay below the 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 0.62597). In the early Asian session, the price sniffed that moving average, but still remained below. The Austrian CPI came lower than...
Bank of Canada releases economic forecasts: Sees 2025 GDP growth at 1.8% vs 2.1% prior
Bank of CanadaThe Bank of Canada had flagged in its December statement that it was likely to revise down 2025 GDP forecasts.Canadian forecasts compared to October:2025 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.8% from 2.1%Q4 2024 GDP growth trimmed to 1.8% from 2.0%CPI inflation...