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BofA sees Fed taking the first steps in conveying a dovish hold today
BofA says that the time is right for the Fed to “take the initial steps in changing its communication from a hawkish hold to dovish one”. In that lieu, they expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged until at least June 2024 before committing to rate cuts. As a...
Sterling slips as economic slowdown fuels BOE rate cut bets
The poor October monthly GDP data here is going to be fueling rate cut expectations by the BOE, especially when paired with the UK jobs report from yesterday here. Coming into today, market players are eyeing June as the first rate cut for the central bank next year...
UK October monthly GDP -0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expected
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Fed won’t stir the pot but rate cut timeline may be faster than ECB – Commerzbank
The firm argues that the Fed will not want to fuel interest rate cut speculations any further in today's communication with Powell "likely to emphasise how important it is to leave interest rates at a high level for long enough”.That being said, the economic...
UK monthly GDP on the agenda in the session ahead
We are likely set for a more pensive trading session in Europe today, as markets are all awaiting for the FOMC meeting statement and decision later. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but there will be a lot to scrutinise, from the dot plots and...
Dollar little changed ahead of European morning trade
The dollar rocked back and forth in the aftermath of the US CPI report but overall, very little has changed. Traders are still pricing in the first rate cut for May 2024 while there is roughly 110 bps worth of rate cuts priced in for the whole of next year currently....
Fed should not offer strong push back against recent market pricing – Citi
As the FOMC meeting statement today will be accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections, Citi anticipates that the Fed should move more dovishly in adjusting its dot plots and inflation forecasts lower today. As for the statement itself, they see a change in...
Economist cut Singapore growth forecast; inflationary pressure, geopolitical tensions risk
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New Zealand government removes full employment goal for Reserve Bank of New Zealand
New Zealand's new government has officially abandoned full employment as a goal for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. This was a policy position the new government had going into the election and since winning the new policy has been much publicized, so it's not fresh...
Wall Street Journal Timiraos suggest a less dovish Fed and Powell could surprise markets
The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos has a piece up ahead of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, new forecasts, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference. Timiraos plys it pretty straight but if I had to read between the lines he...
Preview of Australian jobs market data: Loosening labor market, rise in unemployment rate
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Senior Chinese Communist Party official supportive comments on policy
A senior Chinese Communist Party official, Han Wenxiu, deputy head of the Party's office for financial and economic affairs, was reported in State Media today with some supportive remarks on the economy:China should set its 2024 fiscal deficit and special local...
GBPJPY: UK Payrolls Fall, Unemployment Rate Stabilises
Data reports indicating a fall in UK wages in October caused Sterling to decline, but downside risks were limited as this data is unlikely to change the Bank of England’s policy stance on Thursday (14/12). Payrolls fell slightly by -13k in November, compared to...
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary highlighting the need to monitor rising prices
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Asian Development Bank has raised its China’s 2023 growth forecast to 5.2% (prior 4.9%)
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Westpac cuts its New Zealand Q4 CPI forecast to 0.3% (from 0.6%)
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Bank of America looking out past today’s FOMC – 2024 soft landing
While we await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement due today and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference after, some snippets from Bank of America on what they expect from the Bank in 2024.In brief: "2023 defied almost everyone's expectations:...
Trillions of US stock options set to expire: What it means for the market
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PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1126 (vs. estimate at 7.1717)
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