In a note on Monday Deutsche Bank downgraded European stocks to neutral.DB are wary in the short term:"We expect markets to go mostly sideways with a mild setback of not more than 5% from current levels, predominantly in parts of the market that have seen the biggest...
Seuz shipping – container carriers have entered agreements with Houthis to avoid attack
Dow Jones conveys a report in Shippingwatch (may be gated) that some shipping lines have made agreements with the Houthis to prevent their ships from being attacked in the Red Sea.Carriers said it was too dangerous to travel through the Red Sea and the Suez canalThe...
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is speaking on Tuesday
Barr is speaking at midday US Eastern time, which is 1700 GMT. The topic of his speech is bank regulation, but I'd be betting he'll have some comments on the economy and his policy outlook at any Q&A to follow. As a member of the Board of Governors at the Fed Barr...
Federal Reserve governor Bowman said her hawkish stance has “evolved” (less hawkish)
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Yen, AUD extend their moves higher still
I posted earlier on the yen rally:And on AUD's also:USD/JPY has continued to fall, its under 143.60 now after hitting lows around 143.43. AUD/USD, meanwhile, is not quite impressive but its popped above 0.6731. More generally, the USD is losing ground also against...
SEC Gensler’s Last Stand on crypto Investments amidst Bitcoin ETF approval expectations
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USD/JPY back under 144.00 after Tokyo inflation data
The Tokyo CPI data is here, slowing but with core-core still elevated:In that post you'll also see the household spending, for November. This was terrible:-1.0% m/mexpected +0.2% & prior -0.1%-2.9% y/yexpected -2.3%, prior -2.5%In that post you'll also see my...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1010 (vs. estimate at 7.1502)
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AUD/USD higher after November retail sales
The data is here, the 2% m/m is the biggest in 2 years:Sales for the month hit AUD 36.5bn. This is a record high. High inflation, and strong population growth have played a part in this, of course.Still, AUD/USD catching a bid, showing some outperformance:I suspect...
Australian November Retail Sales +2.0% m/m (expected +1.2%)
Retail sales in Australia for November 2023 +2.0% m/mexpected +1.2% m/m, prior -0.2%%the dollar amount was AUD36.5bn, a record monthly highFor the y/y +2.2%. There is some distrust of the figures at this time of year, the relatively new Black Friday sales events in...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1502 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
UK consumer spending rises in December *slower than in Nov.), boosted by lower inflation
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UK like-for-like sales +1.9% in November (prior +2.6%)
British Retail Consortium (BRC) data:Like-for-like sales +1.9% y/y in Decemberprior +2.6%Total sales +1.7% y/y in DecemberNovember was +2.7%BRC comment:"The festive period failed to make amends for a challenging year of sluggish retail sales growth, as weak consumer...
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Bank of Japan likely offloaded shares as stock prices stabilize
Japanese media, Nikkei, report on how the Bank of Japan is likely to have offloaded some of the shares it has accumulated. Nikkei says The BOJ is believed to have turned a seller in 2023 as its sales of stocks previously purchased from banks as part of measures to...
Tokyo headline CPI for December 2.4% y/y (prior 2.6%)
Falling rates of inflation in the Tokyo area will likely translate to national CPI figures due in around 3 weeks. The underlying rate of inflation, the core-core (ex food and energy), which is closest to the US measure of core inflation, remains well above the Bank of...
Why the People’s Bank of China can’t ease the economic headwinds away
Mizuho on the People's Bank of China - saying that the Bank has its policy hands tied. Despite the twin bogeys of deflation and the absence of significant demand both weighing on growth there is little the PBoC can do. Mizuho nominate two main limitations on the...
Weekly survey of Australian Consumer Confidence 84.8, its highest in nearly a year
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HSBC analysts predict modest strength in the yen; recovery expected this year
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