Industrial profits data for China in November 2023 has been released:+29.5% y/y for the month, up sharply from October's +2.7% y/y and its fourth consecutive month of growthand -4.4% YTD y/y (i.e. January - November y/y), from January - October's reading of -7.8%...
Goldman Sachs forecasting US inflation falling to low 2% y/y by US spring time
Goldman Sachs is forecasting US inflation (the core PCE inflation rate) falling to a level of low 2s y/y by US spring-time.More from the note, issued December 26:Our most out-of-consensus call for 2024 is our growth forecast. Our 2% forecast for 2024 Q4/Q4 GDP growth...
Goldman Sachs’ view on China for the year ahead is not confidence inspiring
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USD/JPY jumped after the BOJ December minutes showed no urgency on a pivot
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The BOJ December meeting summary is not suggestive of any urgent pivot
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Ex-Fed Dallas head Kaplan expects FOMC to lower rates soon, to avoid a flip side mistake
Former Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan spoke with US media (CNBC) on Tuesday. “One of the reasons we got into this inflationary problem is the Fed stayed way too accommodative for too long, even as the economy was improving, and I don’t think it wants...
US stocks off to a positive start for the trading week
The major US stock indices got off to a good start to the holiday-shortened trading week with solid gains. The small-cap Russell 2000 continued its outperformance with a gain of 1.24% to lead the way higher. The Nasdaq index led the Big 3 indices. The final numbers...
BOJ Gov Ueda said we’re not there yet, prospect of achieving price target not high enough
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke on Monday. Justin had the main headlines here:Ueda was addressing a meeting of Councillors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation). Keidanren is a significant organisation in Japan with close links to Japan’s ruling...
Economic calendar in Asia 27 December 2023 – Bank of Japan Summary (December meeting)
Its a light calendar here for the Asia session with the only item of note being the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions from the December 18 and 19 meeting. Policy was left unchanged at that meeting despite the feverish speculation of an imminent policy change from the...
US Dollar in Risky Waters, Technical Setups on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold
US DOLLAR FORECAST – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD PRICESThe U.S. dollar weakens, approaching its lowest level since late JulyFew market catalysts on sight for the remainder of the weekThis article examines the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold, analyzing...
U.S. Treasury sells 2-year notes at a high yield of 4.314%
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US stocks open higher. Higher closes for 8 straight weeks
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US equities set for a small opening gain
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WTI crude rises $1.50 with eyes on the Red Sea
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US October CaseShiller 20-city price index +4.9% y/y vs +4.9% expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
US November Chicago Fed national activity index +0.03 vs -0.49 prior
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US Philly Fed Dec non-manufacturing index +6.3 vs -11.0 prior
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Interest rate cuts.. What’s priced in?
The last two months of the year have featured some aggressive moves by traders in pricing in rate cuts for major central banks going into next year. The narrative is one that says traders are convinced by the disinflation trend and that policymakers can start to lower...
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