Welcome to the main event of the week.The non-farm payrolls report for August is due at the bottom of the hour and Canada will be releasing its jobs report at the same time. The market is pricing in a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut from the Fed this month and that will...
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Nervy markets awaiting the US jobs report
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Consolidation ahead of the US NFP report
Fundamental OverviewIt’s been a rough week for crude oil as the price dropped more than 6% on renewed growth fears amid a couple of soft US data. The delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t spark a rally but it helped to slow down the bearish...
EUR/CHF may look to revisit record low on any NFP angst
The plunge in early August when markets were throwing a tantrum was held by the December 2023 lows, at least on the daily chart. But even so, the pair has been trending in a lower highs, lower lows pattern ever since June this year.EUR/CHF daily chartThe trend speaks...
Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Growth fears weigh on small cap stocks
Fundamental OverviewThis week the growth fears came back as the we got a couple of soft US data. Most of the weakness can be attributed to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which disappointed as it missed expectations, and the new orders index dropped further into...
Eurozone Q2 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimate
Prior +0.3%Looking at the breakdown, household consumption was more or less negligible on the quarter and that is the same for changes in inventories. Government expenditure contributed 0.1% while gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.5%. The latter was offset by...
What are the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
Why it's important?The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact,...
Gold Technical Analysis – All eyes on the US NFP
Fundamental OverviewGold has been rallying steadily this week since bouncing from the bottom of the recent range. The soft US Job Openings on Wednesday gave it the tailwind to push into the key resistance around the 2530 level. This move has been driven by falling...
Risk on the retreat as bond yields fall
The angst in markets is certainly showing up early today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. This comes as bond yields are dipping, with 10-year yields in the US falling to below 3.70% - down 3.8 bps on the day.It's all positioning...
USD/JPY extends fall alongside bond yields to start the session
USD/JPY vs US Treasury 10-year yields (%) hourly chart10-year Treasury yields are now down nearly 4 bps to under 3.70% and that is adding some weight to USD/JPY. The pair is now dragged down by 0.9% to near 142.00 with the 5 August low of 141.68 in focus. Equities are...
European equities open slightly lower to kick start the day
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
France July trade balance -€5.88 billion vs -€6.09 billion prior
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Germany July industrial production -2.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Germany July trade balance €16.8 billion vs €21.0 billion expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
UK August Halifax house prices +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
A couple of items to move things along in European trading today
USD/JPY is on the move to start the day, down another 0.5% to 142.70 currently. The pair is trickling lower, vying for a stronger technical breakdown as yields are also pressured lower on the week. That follows from the mix of US data yesterday.Besides that, the...
Japan July leading indicator index 109.5 vs 108.6 prior
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
We’ve seen the flop and the turn, it is now on to the river
With so much scrutiny on the US labour market at the moment, it doesn't come any bigger than jobs Friday. The non-farm payrolls data is going to be key in deciding how markets end the week. And it won't be just the headline number, the details are going to matter too...
USD/JPY trickles lower as traders turn to non-farm payrolls report next
USD/JPY daily chartThe pair is down another 0.3% today to just under 143.00 now, revisiting the overnight lows right after the US ADP employment change here. The thing is, the bond market is now convinced of a softer turn in the labour market and is pricing in more...