The Israel-Hamas war dominated developments across key commodity markets last week. Gold benefited from safe haven flows, and oil prices spiked. Risk appetite stabilized somewhat today, as investors watch efforts to contain the conflict. USOIL surged nearly 6% on...
A bit of a whipsaw in the Japanese yen on old news
USD/JPY 5 mins chartFrom my broker, USD/JPY caught a whipsaw lower to 148.72 before reversing that move to steady around 149.40 levels again now. The reaction is to the headlines here. It's a bit of a sensitive one but it just confirms what we already should know...
BOJ reportedly mulls raising price outlook for the current fiscal year
The report says that the price outlook for the fiscal year 2023 is being considered to be revised higher to closer to 3%. Meanwhile, the Japanese central bank is said to discuss raising the price outlook for the fiscal year 2024 to 2% or above but to keep the outlook...
Germany October ZEW survey current conditions -79.9 vs -80.8 expected
Prior -79.4Outlook -1.1 vs -9.3 expectedPrior -11.4The good news here is that the economic sentiment i.e. outlook reading is seeing a significant improvement, beating estimates and that points to some further optimism in the months ahead. That being said, the current...
China reportedly tells banks to roll over local government debt at lower rates
It is being reported that Beijing has told state-owned banks to roll over existing local government debt with longer-term loans at lower interest rates. Adding that they will set up an emergency liquidity tool with the banks and that the interest rates on the...
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Watch out for Canadian CPI today
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.Fed Chair...
Japan’s trade union plans to ask for more than 5% wage hike next spring – report
The report says that Japan's trade union confederation, otherwise known as RENGO, is planning to ask for more than a 5% wage hike in the coming 2024 spring wage negotiations. Adding that they also plan to ask for more than a 3% base wage hike on top of that.That's a...
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Dollar remains in a good spot so far this week
The mood among major currencies today is more mixed but overall, the dollar is still in a good spot all things considered. EUR/USD is little changed at 1.0550 currently but is hovering closer to lows near 1.0500 while topside is being managed by the 23.6 Fib...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – New lows incoming?
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.Fed Chair...
FX option expiries for 17 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at 1.0500, which will add to the defensive layer at the figure level and likely help to keep price action above that before rolling off later in the day.Then, there is...
UK September payrolls change -11k vs 0k prior
> UK September payrolls change -11k vs 0k prior Latest data released by ONS - 17 October 2023 <!--> --> <!--> Prior 0k; revised to -8kAugust average weekly earnings % vs +8.3% 3m/y expectedPrior +8.5%August average weekly earnings % vs +7.8% 3m/y...
GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Watch these levels for the next direction
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.Fed Chair...
Treasury yields ticking higher again as market fears abate
US Treasury 10-year yields (%) daily chartThe flight to safety on Friday put a bid in bonds but all of that is being undone this week with 10-year Treasury yields now climbing up to its highest since 9 October again. Yields look poised to march towards 4.80% once more...
Heads up: UK labour market data today will only be a partial one
If you're wondering why the economic calendar might look a bit off today, it's not you. The ONS is only publishing figures on workers' earnings, vacancies and real-time information on employment for today. Meanwhile, the rest of the labour market data is pushed back...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: NZD down on better CPI, AUD up on hawkish RBA minutes
The New Zealand dollar lost ground after the September quarter inflation data came in at levels under expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have recently paused their aggressive series of rate hikes and the data today indicate further rate hikes are less...
More on Head of US CENTCOM flying into Tel Aviv – “ironclad support for Israel.”
The news is here from earlier of General Kurilla's arrival in Israel:CENTCOM statement:Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, Commander, U.S. Central Command, has arrived in Tel Aviv, Israel to conduct high level meetings with Israel’s military leadership, including Lt. Gen....
Federal Reserve speakers Tuesday include Williams, Bowman, Barkin, and Kashkari
The times listed below are in GMT / US Eastern time format:1200 / 08:00 Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams moderates discussion with Intel Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger at Economic Club of New York event1320 / 09:20 Board Governor Michelle Bowman...
European Central Bank’s Centeno and de Guindos speak Tuesday
We'll be hearing from these two and perhaps others who are;t on the schedule but will pop up:09:45 ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno opens conference on the sanctioning role of central banks, in Lisbon13:00 Dinner speech by ECB...
Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) +11.1% m/m in September (expected +3.2%)
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) data for September 2023 accelerated sharply m/m but are still down on a y/y basis. +11.2% m/mexpected +3.2%, prior -6.6%m/m showed growing exports to China, Hong Kong and the U.S.-13.2% y/yexpected -14.7%, prior...