In brief from the markets group at JP Morgan, saying what will support stocks ahead:continue to see growth without inflationled by a still-strong consumer and strong corporate balance sheetsthese will pull earnings higher, against a lower bar of expectationssee...
Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Logan, Bostic and Collins
I'm having a few tech issues today so a bit of a bare-bones post this one. 1400 GMT / 1000 US Eastern time Logan (Dallas Fed President)1700 GMT / 1300 US Eastern time Bostic (Atlanta Fed President)2000 GMT / 1600 US Eastern time Collins (Boston Fed...
European Central Bank speakers due Thursday
I'm having a few tech issues today so a bit of a bare-bones post this one. Members of the European Central Bank's governing council ahead for the day:0830 GMT / 0430 US Eastern time Villeroy (Governor of Banque de France)1000 GMT / 0600 US Eastern time Knot (President...
China Everbright Group Chairman will be arrested
Earlier this week Li Xiaopeng, former party chief and chairman of China Everbright Group, was expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and his post.Reasons cited were severe violations of party discipline and Chinese laws including accepting bribery, illegally...
Mizuho forecasts USD/JPY as high as 155 in Q1 2024
Via Bloomberg comes remarks from Mizuho Americas on USD/JPY, looking for it trade as high as 155 in the first quarter of next year.Citing ongoing very loose monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. Given this USD/JPY won't move lower until their is a shift from other...
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BOJ’s Noguchi says biggest focus is if wage rise momentum will be sustained or not
Bank of Japan policy board member Noguchi: Biggest focus is whether wage hike momentum will be maintained or notRaising of YCC allowance band does not signify a tightening of monetary policyIf central banks hold rate hikes and inflation comes down, the risk of hard...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1776 (vs. estimate at 7.2932)
The closing rate was 7.2990The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to...
Bank of England Chief Economist Pill is speaking Thursday 12 October
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
BoA says that “The equal weighted S&P could rip” – could do double the S&P 500 gain
BofA Securities head of US equity and quantitative strategy in a Bloomberg TV interview overnight:probably a lot of this good news has been priced ... maybe even overpriced into the Mega-cap tech cohort. Everybody owns these companies, so there's not a lot of buying...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2932 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
Australian data: Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflation Expectations 4.8% (prior 4.6%)
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Japan data August Core Machinery Orders -0.5% m/m (expected +0.4%) & -7.7% y/y (-7.3%)
Japan August Machinery Orders come in at a miss. Earlier this week were data from the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association (JMTBA): preliminary machine tool orders for September -11% y/y (August was -18%)The drop was driven by domestic (lack of) orders but wasn;t...
Japan data: September PPI -0.3% m/m (expected 0.1%) +2.0% y/y (expected 2.3%)
Japan data for wholesale-level goods inflation is disappointing, falling for the month vs. the small rise that was expected. ---The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI)its a measure of the average change over time...
ICYMI – Japan’s government is considering extending fuel subsidies
Adam posted the info overnight, and he is correct:utterly bafflingIt has tried to stoke inflation for years and it continues to with ZIRP and QE despite higher global inflation. So instead of letting customers pay the price of fuel, it brings it down with...
ECB’s Vujcic says too soon to declare victory over inflation, waiting for early 2024 data
Boris Vujcic is governor of the Croatian National Bank and thus a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council.Vujcic spoke in Marrakech, Morocco, where the International Monetary Fund is holding its annual meetings.In brief:too soon to declare victory over...
UK data – RICS house price balance drops to -69 in September (vs. -63 expected)
UK RICS house price balance -69 in September -63 expected and prior -68Not a GBP mover. -Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices.MoneyMaker...
Goldman Sachs says the risk for US yield is skewed to the downside
Goldman Sachs US bond view, analysts say that yield on the 10 year are 'meaningfully' above their estimate of fair value and risks are skewed to the dowside.GS say they expect the US economy to falter in Q4, saying they are expecting a "growth pothole" in that...
Barclays sees scope for stock earnings risks “titled to the downside”
Comments from Barclays analysts on equities, a cautious tone.In brief:A more mixed Q3 economy means results should be more mixed too. They could still be enough to help stabilize the market post pull-back, but misses are likely to be punished as lofty ’24 estimates...
PIMCO says bullish longer term bonds (12 month horizon), cites peaking inflation
PIMCO said it was bullish on the performance of long-term bonds:continue to favour long-term bonds over the next year, as they provide high yields not seen for over a decade while offering a cushion against economic uncertainty and expectations inflation has...