Treasury yields are still higher but the earlier gains from the US dollar have evaporated. Leading the gainers are the yen and pound. The latter is now higher for the third day in a row and is back above 1.2200.Could this be the start of a bigger retracement?cable...
Mohamed El-Erian on 2 factors that makes a US recession more likely
El-Erian is Allianz chief economic adviser. He wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times (gated). Business Insider highlight his main points from the FT piece: Two reasons why America's odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling Yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond...
ECB’s Schnabel: If risks materialize, further rate hikes may be necessary
ECB's SchnabelThe ECB has published an interview with executive board member Isabel Schnabel.Overall, the recent news on inflation is encouragingCore inflation has proven more stubbornWe cannot take it for granted that inflation will only move downwards from now on,...
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Key support in sight
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike...
Exxon in talks to buy Pioneer – report
PXD shares dailyThe WSJ reports that Exxon is in talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources in what would be the largest oil deal since Exxon and Mobile came together and one of the largest corporate takeovers ever.Pioneer's market cap is $50 billion and the WSJ says the...
Italy August retail sales -0.4% vs +0.4% prior
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic is preparing for a possible 20% drop in the S&P 500
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic spoke with CNBC on Thursday, is looking for the further fall due to high interest rates setting up a shunt lower. Says cash at a 5.5% return in money market and short-term Treasurys is a key protection strategy at present “I’m not sure how...
Is Biden’s appearance a tell?
AI imageEamonn earlier noted that US President Joe Biden has been scheduled to speak about the jobs report at 11:30 am ET.A few things to keep in mind:The White House gets the jobs number on Thursday afternoonThis speech wasn't scheduled until after that timeBiden...
McCormick Stocks Powerfully Dropped. How It Is Connected to China
What's that scent in the air? It's the aroma of stocks that have taken an 8% hit in just a week, and a 14% one in a month. And if you happen to hold McCormick stocks in your portfolio, you're probably well aware of it. The spice giant's shares are experiencing some...
JP Morgan bond manager sees strong economy, can handle higher rates, 10yr could get to 6%
Bloomberg (gated) has the report on the manager of US$8.8 billion JPMorgan Strategic Income Opportunities Fund.In brief:As of the end of August, 63% of the portfolio was in cash-like instrumentsthe rest is primarily in short-dated, floating-rate investment-grade...
YaMarkets: Alleviating Concerns About the Safety of Your Funds
YaMarkets, a trusted leader in the forex industry, is dedicated to alleviating the legitimate concerns and apprehensions that often accompany the question, "What will brokers do with my hard-earned funds?"It is only natural for traders to have questions and concerns...
Market Update – October 6- Wait and see: NFP ahead
It has been a quiet day in the markets with subdued volumes and small changes: in America US30 ticked down 0.03% while both US500 & US100 lost around 0.1% and volumes have been 15% lower than the 30-day average. But European indices and other asset calls such as...
USDJPY Technical Analysis – All eyes on the NFP report today
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike...
Halifax says downward pressure on UK house prices likely to last into next year
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Former Fed vice chair Clarida says the BOJ policy rate could be hiked to 0% by early 2024
Clarida is now a Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO) managing director and the firm's global economic advisor. He posted his thoughts on the Bank of Japan. In brief: After seeing years of disinflation or outright deflation, Japan’s policymakers are comfortable...
German industrial orders rebounded in August
German industrial ordersThe market has largely ignored the strong German industrial orders data released a short time ago. The euro is down 17 pips on the day, mostly since the release at 0800 CET, though bund yields are up 1.6 bps.Orders rose 3.9% in August compared...
Some bids creep into the dollar ahead of non-farm payrolls
The US dollar slackened yesterday as yields faded and positions were squared ahead of non-farm payrolls but the dollar is reasserting itself today. That's been coupled with a 2 bps rise in yields across the Treasury curve.USD/JPY is particularly strong, up 45 pips to...
US non-farm payroll preview – here are the ranges of estimates
The ranges from the survey are useful to be aware of for such high-profile data. When the actual results fall outside the range of estimates the market impact can be outsized. I posted earlier in the week the range of estimates for the ADP data, which then came in...
Goldman Sachs non-farm payroll preview
Goldman Sachs preview the US labor market report: Despite the labor market continuing to rebalance, with our jobs-workers gap now a large part of the way back to pre-pandemic levels, we estimate Friday's jobs report will show a strong 200k (mom sa) rise in nonfarm...
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on Friday
1600 GMT / 1200 US Eastern time:Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on "Payments" before the Brookings Institution "Making America's Payment System Work for a Digital Currency" event I won't be expecting anything on his economic outlook, nor...