Headlines:Markets:JPY leads, CHF lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.8%US 10-year yields up 3.9 bps to 4.450%Gold down 0.6% to $1,918.81WTI crude down 0.5% to $89.19Bitcoin down 1.4% to $26,715The two major central bank decisions today...
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Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Key support in sight
Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected but revised its outlook on the more hawkish side. In fact, the Fed not only sees another rate hike by the end of the year but also much less rate cuts in 2024 as they revised it from 4.6% seen...
BOE’s Bailey: Inflation is falling and we expect it to fall further this year
That is welcome newsPrevious rate hikes are working but inflation is still not where it needs to beThere is absolutely no room for complacencyWill be watching closely to see if further rate hikes will be neededWill need to keep rates high enough and long enough to get...
Will the BOE decision today come back to haunt them in the future?
The BOE decision to not hike rates today might seem warranted to some extent but it might just end up being a lesson in history if things don't go their way. The inflation report this week did show signs of slowing inflation but at 6.7%, the UK still sits atop the...
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GBP Breaking News: BoE Hints at Peak Rates after Vote to Hold, GBP Offered
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates Steady at 5.25%The monetary policy committee narrowly decided to hold (5-4)Disinflation expected to continue but growth forecasts for H2 likely to be weakerBoE hints at a potential peak in interest rates as the bank stated it will...
Stocks take no pleasure in the central bank surprises today
In fact, US futures are even extending losses on the day now. Here's a snapshot of things:Eurostoxx -1.4%Germany DAX -1.1%France CAC 40 -1.4%UK FTSE -0.2%S&P 500 futures -0.7%Nasdaq futures -1.0%Dow futures -0.5%So, what's the cause for the lack of cheer in stocks...
Pound falls as BOE hits the pause button
And so the BOE now officially joins the ranks of all the other major central banks into pausing their tightening cycle. The gang is complete again, after having seen the SNB surprise earlier in the day as well. So, what exactly is the impact to the pound as the BOE...
BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25% vs 5.50% expected
Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 4-5 vs 8-1 expected (Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Pill, Ramsden vote to hold)Underlying growth in the 2H 2023 is likely to be weaker than expectedLabour market remains tight by historical standardsCPI inflation is expected to fall...
Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Watch out for the breakout
Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected but revised its outlook on the more hawkish side. In fact, the Fed not only sees another rate hike by the end of the year but also much less rate cuts in 2024 as they revised it from 4.6% seen...
USD/JPY turns lower in European trading
I don't see any headlines driving the drop but if anything else, I think we might be seeing some positioning plays in anticipation of the BOJ tomorrow. The Japanese central bank is still the one with the most propensity to surprise markets and I reckon we are seeing...
Gold Technical Analysis – Watch out for the data
Gold continues to range as the uncertainty in the market remains at the highest level. In fact, we continue to see selloffs on good data and rallies on weak readings but never a sustained move. The Fed yesterday indicated that another hike might still be in the cards,...
Sterling holds lower ahead of the BOE later today
GBP/USD is down 0.4% to 1.2300 on the day while EUR/GBP is up 0.3% to 0.8665 at the moment. The former is down to its lowest levels since early April as price threatens to break the 25 May low of 1.2308 currently:GBP/USD daily chartThe downside shove in cable this...
SNB’s Jordan: Inflation battle is not over
Given "comfortable" level of Swiss inflation, the best solution is to wait and seeHave to see what happens over the next 3 monthsClear focus is on price stabilityWe are not reacting to weakening in the economy, but to lower inflationI guess if any central bank has a...
EURUSD Technical Analysis – Key levels in play
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end of the...
ECB’s Nagel: Rates must stay sufficiently high for sufficiently long
The name of the game is all about selling the narrative of higher rates for longer now. But when it comes to that, policymakers can only go so far as what the data allows them to. And in the case of the ECB, it might not be too convincing if the euro area economy...
ECB’s Kazaks: Rise in energy prices does create upside risk to inflation
Recent energy price rise is structural, not a short-term transitory riseGiven current outlook, rate cut expectations around middle of 2024 are too earlyRates will need to remain restrictive for quite a whileIn his words, the mix of the rise in energy prices and lower...
USD/CHF looks to come up for air as SNB surprises by pausing early
In what was billed to be a one and done case for the SNB, they decided to stop hiking rates earlier than anticipated. I mean perhaps it makes sense when you consider their status when viewing the inflation rankings among major economies:*Japan data to be released on...
SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at 1.75% vs 2.00% expected
Prior 1.75%Significant tightening of policy in recent quarters is countering remaining inflationary pressureIt cannot be ruled out that further tightening may become necessarySNB will monitor inflation developments closely in the coming monthsWill remain active in the...