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The name of the game is all about selling the narrative of higher rates for longer now. But when it comes to that, policymakers can only go so far as what the data allows them to. And in the case of the ECB, it might not be too convincing if the euro area economy...
Recent energy price rise is structural, not a short-term transitory riseGiven current outlook, rate cut expectations around middle of 2024 are too earlyRates will need to remain restrictive for quite a whileIn his words, the mix of the rise in energy prices and lower...
In what was billed to be a one and done case for the SNB, they decided to stop hiking rates earlier than anticipated. I mean perhaps it makes sense when you consider their status when viewing the inflation rankings among major economies:*Japan data to be released on...
Prior 1.75%Significant tightening of policy in recent quarters is countering remaining inflationary pressureIt cannot be ruled out that further tightening may become necessarySNB will monitor inflation developments closely in the coming monthsWill remain active in the...
Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected but revised its outlook on the more hawkish side. In fact, the Fed not only sees another rate hike by the end of the year but also much less rate cuts in 2024 as they revised it from 4.6% seen...
Eurostoxx -0.9%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -1.0%UK FTSE -0.6%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7%This follows the heavy selling in Wall Street yesterday, with the softer mood so far today also not helping. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% as higher bond yields are...
There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at 1.0600, although it isn't exactly the most technically significant level for the pair at the moment. That title goes to the May low at 1.0635 as highlighted here.As such, the expiries...
Prior 99; revised to 100Services confidence 102Prior 100; revised to 102Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 96; revised to 97After a revision higher for August, French business confidence remains unchanged on the month as it holds at the long-term average of...
EUR/USD daily chartThe fact that the Fed managed to convince markets that they can stick with the narrative of higher rates for longer is a win in itself for the dollar. I mean, if you look elsewhere, the case is definitely less compelling for the likes of the ECB and...
Little chance of a rate cut before MarchRates could just stay where they are for longerIf inflation outlook holds, may not need any more rate hikesThe ECB wants to try to at least sell a hawkish pause but they're not doing a very good job at that. These remarks will...
German DAX futures -0.8%UK FTSE futures -0.8%It was an ugly day for US stocks yesterday with the reversal coming after the FOMC meeting decision, which meant that European indices lucked out on that before the close. But there is some catching up to do as such today,...
Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected but revised its outlook on the more hawkish side. In fact, the Fed not only sees another rate hike by the end of the year but also much less rate cuts in 2024 as they revised it from 4.6% seen...
The crackdown continues in China as officials are obviously unhappy over how things are unfolding in domestic markets as of late. The report here highlights more unofficial measures taken up, one that I would label as off the books, as Beijing seeks to coerce market...
The dollar is in a commanding spot after the Fed yesterday, as Powell & co. reaffirmed the narrative of higher rates for longer. It was enough to convince markets and Treasury yields in particular is seeing a notable breakout as seen here.The greenback is still...
As for when the BOJ might end negative rates, the majority now sees that as coming some time in 2024. 13 of 25 economists are of that view, representing 52%, and that is up from a roughly 41% proportion in the August poll. As for yield curve control, 21 of 27...
US Treasury 10-year yields (%) monthly chartThe gist of it is that the Fed is sticking to their ongoing pause as they continue to tout the narrative of higher rates for longer. In backing that narrative, they revised higher their projections for the economy and also...
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Westpac on tomorrow's BOJ and potential support for the Yen:This week's BoJ is not expected to produce any policy tweaks, but Ueda could nevertheless strike a hawkish chord, similar to the recent interview where he signalled openness to ending negative rates. US Tsy...
ING with an 'in a nutshell' preview of the Bank of Japan statement due on Friday, 22 September 2023:the BoJ is likely to stay patcould however probably send a subtle hawkish message to the market after higher-than-expected inflation and a weak JPY, combined with...
It's a bit of a paradox that if traders are indeed on intervention watch and reluctant to buy USD/JPY ahead of the 150 level where many think the BOJ may step in then there is little profit taking from longs up higher to slow the ascent of USD/JPY.Bloomberg (gated)...