US Treasury 10-year yields (%) monthly chartThe gist of it is that the Fed is sticking to their ongoing pause as they continue to tout the narrative of higher rates for longer. In backing that narrative, they revised higher their projections for the economy and also...
Goldman Sachs pushes back expectation of first Fed rate cut to Q4 2024
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
BOJ statement due Friday: “Ueda could strike a hawkish chord”
Westpac on tomorrow's BOJ and potential support for the Yen:This week's BoJ is not expected to produce any policy tweaks, but Ueda could nevertheless strike a hawkish chord, similar to the recent interview where he signalled openness to ending negative rates. US Tsy...
BOJ staatement tomorrow – preview – “could probably send a subtle hawkish message “
ING with an 'in a nutshell' preview of the Bank of Japan statement due on Friday, 22 September 2023:the BoJ is likely to stay patcould however probably send a subtle hawkish message to the market after higher-than-expected inflation and a weak JPY, combined with...
Bloomberg: “Traders on Intervention Watch as Yen Hovers Below 150 to Dollar”
It's a bit of a paradox that if traders are indeed on intervention watch and reluctant to buy USD/JPY ahead of the 150 level where many think the BOJ may step in then there is little profit taking from longs up higher to slow the ascent of USD/JPY.Bloomberg (gated)...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: US yields and US dollar, both continue to soar
Today’s Asia session followed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday in the US where the Fed Funds target was held steady but the updated dots from the Committee guided higher rates for a longer period of time. US yields surged, and along with that the...
Reserve Bank of Australia’s ‘Bulletin’ discusses monitoring developments in wages
The Bulletin is published quarterly in March, June, September and December. It contains articles on the economy and financial system from teams throughout the Reserve Bank of Australia. Full thing can be found here.If you are interested, one of the articles in it...
Japan’s Nikkei asks “Is Japan’s deflation era ending?”
Link is here to the piece (may be gated).Some of the points made:Recent comments by Bank of Japan and government officials are stirring expectations the Japanese economy is finally nearing a turning point where it can declare victory over deflation and the central...
Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno verbal yen intervention crossing the newswires
Matsuno's remarks come after a big surge for USD/JPY following a hawkish hold from the FOMC on Wednesday. Important for FX to move stably reflecting the fundamentals Will respond appropriately to FX moves if necessary Won't rule out any options for response to FX...
China financial media front page opinion piece – PBOC might cut its RRR in Q4
China Securities Times citing analysts in the article. We've been hearing over and over about this cut being ahead. Given the steady drip of stimulus measures I guess it'll come. Nailing a likely date is very difficult given the lack of transparency at the People's...
Bank of England preview – headline inflation lowest in 18 months makes rate hike 50/50
I posted earlier on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decision coming up today, with JP Morgan saying a rate hike is a coin toss:Bank of Montreal with a similar take:UK CPI caught our attention as it shored an unexpected deceleration in headline inflation...
ANZ analysts says China is showing ‘early signs’ of economic stabilization
An economist at ANZ says that while China is showing 'early signs' of economic stabilization it's still too early to tell if the economy will secure a full recovery by the end of the year.in terms of economic momentum we are seeing some early signs of some sort of...
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 7.1730 (vs. estimate at 7.3052)
The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
The US dollar index has hit its highest since early in March
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
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LNG: Australia industrial arbitrator says Chevron, Unions close to achieving agreements
Australia industrial arbitrator says: Chevron, Unions are on the precipice of achieving historical first enterprise agreements for LNG facilities Discussions have resulted in widespread agreement on the majority of provisions of the proposed enterprise agreements A...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.3052 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
JP Morgan on FOMC – Even with more hawkish dots, still comfortable thinking hiking is over
The JP Morgan on Wednesday FOMC and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference:FOMC went beyond just leaning into the soft-landing narrative—they are now forecasting only a trivial weakening in growth and labor markets next year and beyond. Given this very rosy...
Lower than expected UK CPI data, Bank of England policy decision today now close to 50/50
UK inflation data came in below the median estimate on Wednesday:Goldman Sachs had been forecasting a rate hike from the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee but changed that to now expecting an on-hold decision. JP Morgan say: "We stick with our call for a hike, but now...
Australian LNG strikes – still no agreement between Chevron and Unions
Mediated talks between Chevron and Unions over disputes that have disrupted operations across 3 LNG sites in Western Australia:Wheatstone offshore gas platformGorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants have ended with no deal.The next step will be taken today, with the opposing...