The good news on the economy continues to be trumped by further tightening in financial conditions due to rising Treasury yields, and the tensions in the Middle East increasing. In fact, on a forward-looking basis, these events are likely to weigh on the economy...
Pause Brings Optimism!
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to maintain their current interest rates without any significant changes. ECB officials are generally leaning towards keeping rates stable, and the likelihood of a rate cut in the near...
It’s all about the known unknowns right now
If you've been glued to yours screens waiting for that USD/JPY push towards 150.00 again, it must be a real snoozer over the last 1.5 hours. Here's the minute price action in the pair and it shows a roughly 8-10 pips range:At this stage, it's all about anticipating...
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Watch these key levels
US:The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.Fed Chair...
기초연금 달라진다! 72만 8천원까지 받지만…대상자는 축소?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk12XzahSP8 보건복지부 산하 ‘기초연금 적정성 평가 위원회’에서 정부에 보고서를 제출했는데요. 현재 65세 노인 중에서 소득 하위 70%에게 지급하는 기초연금 기준을, 기준중위소득 100% 이하로 바꾸고, 금액은 40만 원으로 인상하되, 소득수준별로 차등해서 지급해야 한다는 방안과 함께 장기적으로는 대상자를 기준중위소득 50%까지 줄이고 액수는 월 72만 8천 원까지 상당히 많이 높인다는...
Market Update – October 20 – Stocks in a Sell Off, Commodities Advance!
Global stock markets experienced a decline due to increased volatility resulting from escalating tensions in the Middle East, compounded by Fed Powell’s statement which added to the atmosphere of risk aversion. Longer dated yields have climbed again while the...
Israel says that at any time Hezbollah shoots, they will fire back
This will keep sentiment balanced on a knife's edge over the weekend as tensions are flaring up at the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah has long been poking to instigate a conflict but have been careful enough to avoid an all-out war. But amid the current situation...
USD/JPY nervy as traders test waters at 150.00
It doesn't look quite like Tokyo intervention considering the size of the drop rather than stops being triggered. On some charts, you might not see it touch the 150.00 mark (at least not on my broker screen) but the Reuters quote is putting it up there right on the...
Sterling pinned down after weak UK retail sales
GBP/USD is down 0.3% on the day to 1.2110 but the real show of pound weakness this week comes from the jump higher in EUR/GBP as the pair rises to its highest levels since May:EUR/GBP daily chartThe break above 0.8700 and the 200-day moving average (blue line) in...
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Watch out for a breakout
USThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.The macroeconomic projections were revised higher, and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.Fed Chair...
FX option expiries for 20 October 10am New York cut
There are a couple of large ones to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.The first being for EUR/USD at 1.0550, which could help to limit price action closer to its 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.0557-65 currently. Then, there are larger ones at...
Gold Technical Analysis – We are at a key resistance
Despite the surging Treasury yields and a stable US Dollar, Gold continues to set new highs as the focus remains on the Middle East. In fact, if we just track the most important developments in the Middle East, we can see how Gold first gapped higher following the...
BOJ to hold first long-term monetary policy review workshop on 4 December
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
USD/JPY anxiously close to touch the 150.00 mark again
USD/JPY hourly chartJust keep an eye out on USD/JPY before the weekend as we could get a push to 150.00 at any point in time now. The pair is up slightly on the day, hovering around 149.94 currently. In case you need a reminder on the last time it hit the figure...
BOJ’s Ueda: Japan economy is recovering moderately
Economy likely to continue with moderate recoveryConsumption is increasing steadilyThe pace of inflation rise likely to slow, then re-accelerate again reflecting changes in wages, price-setting behaviourMust carefully watch financial market moves and their impact on...
BOJ: Japan’s financial system has been maintaining stability as a whole
Japanese banks have sufficient capital bases to perform financial intermediation activities appropriately even amid tightening of global financial conditionsHowever, vigilance against tail risks continues to be warrantedContinued monetary tightening and economic...
UK September retail sales -0.9% vs -0.2% m/m expected
Prior +0.4%Retail sales -1.0% vs -0.1% y/y expectedPrior -1.4%; revised to -1.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.0% vs -0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.6%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.2% vs -0.2% y/y expectedPrior -1.4%; revised to -1.3%It may sound repetitive but this...
BOE’s Bailey says expects a ‘marked fall’ in inflation next month
September inflation figures not far off what we were expectingCore inflation fell slightly from what we expected, that is quite encouragingWe will see more evidence of lower inflation by year-endPay growth still well above anything consistent with inflation targetOn...
Little on the agenda in Europe to wrap up the week
Major currencies are once again caught in a bit of a bind, staying little changed ahead of European morning trade. Traders are finding it tough to really extrapolate from the clues offered up by the bond market as geopolitical tensions are muddying sentiment...
Stocks on course to end the week lower
The fall yesterday could be in part due to both rising Treasury yields and also the geopolitical worries surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict. Tech stocks fell the most with the Nasdaq itself down 1% but perhaps more worryingly, we are seeing a pattern of lower...