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BOE rate hike odds for this week now a near coin flip
It was roughly ~80% prior to the data and here's how the change looks on the OIS curve:Essentially, markets are pricing in just one more rate hike for this cycle by the BOE (implied rate currently at 5.18%). It was already the case before the CPI report but the latest...
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Time for a correction?
Crude Oil surged to new highs as the supply side got squeezed even more by resilient demand and more production cuts. In fact, the OPEC continues to forecast robust growth for oil demand in 2023 and 2024 while keeping supplies tight as Saudi Arabia and Russia extended...
Switzerland ups economic growth forecast for the year but revises lower 2024 projection
2023 GDP growth seen at +1.3% (previously +1.1%)2024 GDP growth seen at +1.2% (previously +1.5%)2023 CPI seen at +2.2% (previously +2.3%)2024 CPI seen at +1.9% (previously +1.5%)The government says that the global economy is likely to take longer to recover from the...
Market Update – September 20 – FED will stay on hold; Dot Plot, SEP are key
In a day that will be centred around the Fed’s deliberations this evening, and above all the quarterly economic projections, the new dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference, we start with China where the PBoC just now left its benchmark rates...
Equities welcome softer UK inflation data, yields lower on initial reaction
Well, the softer UK inflation data here raises the odds of the BOE joining the ranks of the Fed and ECB into pausing but not after one last rate hike this week in all likelihood. The odds of a 25 bps move coming into today was at ~80% and while traders may pull back...
A one and done case for the BOE now?
If anything else, the data here today vindicates what markets have priced in going into the BOE policy decision tomorrow: One last rate hike for the BOE this week?I outlined the reasons in the post above as to why markets have toned down their expectations for the BOE...
UK August CPI +6.7% vs +7.0% y/y expected
Prior +6.8%Core CPI +6.2% vs +6.8% y/y expectedPrior +6.9%It is softer readings across the board, as even the monthly estimates are a miss on expectations. In August, headline inflation moved up by just 0.3% (vs 0.7% estimate) on the month and the lower figures are...
GBPJPY Technical Analysis – Breakout or Fakeout?
UK:The BoE hiked by 25 bps as expected at the last meeting. The central bank seems to be leaning more on the less hawkish side as a key line in the statement was tweaked to indicate the propensity for a “higher for longer” stance rather than keeping with additional...
누가 가장 많이 받을까? 대표 복지 직업 비교(급여 위주) 요양보호사, 활동지원사, 생활지원사
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbpBo8tuf3U 오늘은 요양보호사, 활동지원사, 생활지원사 이렇게 비교적 진입장벽이 낮은 편에 속하는 대표적인 복지 일자리 3가지에 대해 간단히 알아보고 각 각 정부에서 정한 임금을 비교해 보는 영상입니다. #요양보호사 #활동지원사 #생활지원사 MoneyMaker FX EA Trading...
Major currencies subdued as Fed day looms
We've finally made it to Fed day. After the rather apathetic start to the week, perhaps things might start to pick up after we get to the main event later today. But for now, broader markets remain rather subdued especially in the major currencies space. Here's a...
UK inflation in focus in the session ahead
Major currencies continue to stay in a rather subdued mood, with there being little change today after the mixed showing yesterday. The main focus is on the Fed decision today, which will kick off a bunch of other major central bank decisions on the week as seen...
Talk of $100 too hot to handle for oil bulls?
Well, perhaps the spotlight and attention is not something oil bulls are liking at the moment especially after the hot start to the new week yesterday. WTI crude briefly hit above $92 to its highest levels since November last year before a quick retreat and now...
Japan former top currency diplomat warns of intervention if the yen falls further
It is fully possible that Tokyo will conduct intervention in case the yen weakens furtherAmid a weakening yen, BOJ may have no choice but to normalise monetary policyThat includes exiting negative rates and ending yield curve controlHe also says that markets shouldn't...
Brent oil price down to near USD93.50
Brent has dropped from highs circa USD96 earlier in the week. The drop today comes despite the large draw reported in the private survey earlier:I'm seeing a fake interview with US President Biden regarding SPR release doing the rounds on Twitter. Sheesh. MoneyMaker...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Subdued FX ranges ahead of the FOMC
Once again major forex rates traded in limited ranges ahead of a big Wednesday coming up with:UK inflation data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s news conference.The early part of the session brought comments from...
PBoC official says there is a solid foundation to keep yuan exchange rate basically stable
Comments from a People's Bank of China official at this press conference:Focused on the yuan: Will pay more attention to changes in yuan exchange rate against a basket of currenciesThere is solid foundation to keep yuan exchange rate basically stableWill resolutely...
UK CPI data is due Wednesday, 20 September 2023 – danger of higher than expected?
Hot on the heels of the higher than expected Canadian CPI comes UK data later today;For the headline CPI m/m the range of estimates is 0.2% to 0.8%For the headline CPI y/y the range is 6.4% to 7.2%For the Core CPI m/m the range is 0.5% to 0.7%For the Core CPI y/y the...
China’s NDRC Vice Chair: macro polices effective, still challenges, striving to hit target
This from a Beijing news conference focused on China's economic situation. Representatives from the People's Bank of China will attend, as will the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC), the Ministry of Finance, and the...
Heads up for a PBOC press conference coming up at 0200 GMT (10pm US Eastern time)
The news conference will be focused on China's economic state at present. You can expect plenty of upbeat promises if experience is anything to go by. Representatives from the People's Bank of China will attend, as will the National Development and Reform Commission...