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It was a ride in the equity market today but it ended where it began
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Economic calendar in Asia 12 January 2024 – Chinese inflation data (and more) incoming
It's a packed data agenda ahead, with the most interest lasered in on Chinese inflation data. Will deflation continue?Inflation is not currently an issue in China, deflation is. The explanation offered up for negative inflation rates are the declines in food and...
Trade ideas thread – Friday, 12 January, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives,...
Bombs set to fly in Yemen tonight – report
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Eyes on the FOMC speakers’ schedule as we count down to the blackout
One interpretation of the dovish market reaction to CPI in the rates market today is that Fed speakers weren't as hawkish as you would expect after a hot CPI reading. I continue to believe that the reaction function has changed and the Fed and markets do a delicate...
Fed’s Goolsbee: December services inflation was a little more favorable than expected
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US stocks erase losses as yields plunge
It's been a long, slow recovery but the S&P 500 is now flat on the day.The recovery comes as the bond market shrugs laughs off the CPI report. US 2 year yields are now down 11 bps on the day and the Fed funds curve is pricing in more cuts than before CPI.Maybe...
Lagarde: We are winning a battle at the moment
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US crude oil futures settle at $72.02
The sawtooth up-and-down price action in crude oil continued today with a gain of $0.65 or 0.91%. The price settled at $72.02.The high-priced today reached $73.81. The low price was at $71.17.The earlier rise came as geopolitical worries escalated after Iran seized an...
What’s behind the bid in the front end of the Treasury curve
The bid in the front end is incredible today.Perhaps that's a rejection of worries about high inflation and further bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts (Dec 2024 pricing up to 151 bps).Another theory is that bombs are about to start falling in the Middle East. There is a...
AUDUSD corrects off of the low and tests an old floor from the week.
The AUDUSD moved lower with the dollar buying today and in the process, fell below a floor at 0.66767 that defined the low of what has been a narrow trading week (from low to high only about 60 pips). The extension lower saw the price extend to a new low for the week...
What’s next for the US dollar after CPI
The data today was straightforward and hawkish for the US dollar today but the market reaction hasn't played out that way. The initial pop higher in the dollar and slump in equities has faded.In particular, the fixed income market appears to be brushing aside worries....
More from Barkin: Today’s CPI was about ‘as expected’ still seeing a moderation overall
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UK and US could be in final stages of decision to strike Houthis in Yemen
A report says that Rishi Sunak is holding a full cabinet meeting at 7:45 pm this evening, which is just over an hour away.There is speculation that it's about UK and US strikes on Houthis in Yemen.At this point, attacks would be no surprise but whether that's enough...
Fed’s Barkin: I’m looking to be convinced that inflation is headed to target
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U.S. Treasury auctions of $21 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.229%
High Yield 4.229 with a six-auction average of 4.399%.WI level at the time of the auction was at 4.230%Tail: Previous -0.1 basis points versus six-auction average +2.2 basis points.Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.37X vs six-auction average at 2.39x.Dealers' Participation:...
US treasury to auction or $21 billion of 30 year note at the top of the hour
The US treasury will auction off $21 billion of 30-year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction completes the coupon auctions for the week. The three-year note auction was met with above-average demand (I gave it a grade of B). The 10 year note auction yesterday was...
Nasdaq bears take over and tilt the short-term bias down. S&P also below moving average.
The 4-day win streak for the Nasdaq index is on track to be broken today. The tech heavy index is currently down 134.21 points or 0.90% at 14835.47.Nasdaq index is back below its 100 hour moving averageThe move lower has also taken the price back below its 100-hour...
Fed’s Mester: December CPI report shows the job is not done yet
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