The sudden turnaround in the bond market on Friday is definitely a curious one but perhaps it continues the theme from early August. The focus then was on the flood of supply in Treasuries, which still hasn't changed by the way, and traders might be responding to that...
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China property stocks surge
Session wrap Forex news for Asian trading on Monday, 4 September 2023 <!--> --> Hong Kong listed Chinese property developer shares rose strongly during the session with news over the weekend that deeply indebted Country Garden Holdings had been given approval...
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking Monday, 4 September 2023, also Lane and Panetta
While the US and Canada are out on holiday today:the UK and Europe are open as normal. There are European Central Bank speakers on the agenda as follows:1330 GMT, 0930 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar...
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng higher following news that Country Garden extends bond deadline
Property developer Country Garden Holdings has been reported as having won approval over the weekend to extend payments for an onshore private bond. The fate of an offshore bond due later this week remains unknown.It comes after four top-tier cities have all eased...
China state planner says will set up a special bureau for development of private economy
The vice chair of China's state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC), says the country's central government approved setting up a special bureau within the NDRC for the development of the private economy.the...
BlackRock’s Rieder thinks there will be no further Federal Reserve FOMC rate hikes
BlackRock’s chief investment officer in global fixed income Rick Rieder after the US jobs report on Friday:“The Fed should be done. You can put your shoulder behind a bit more of interest-rate exposure than has been the case certainly over the last few months.”The...
Australian Q2 2023 Business Inventories -1.9% q/q (vs. expected +0.4%)
April - June quarter data from Australia. Business Inventories -1.9% expected 0.4%, prior 1.2%the surprise drop in this will drag down Q2 GDP by around 1%Gross Company Profits -13.1% q/qexpected -1.9%, prior +0.5%mining company profits slumped, dragging down this...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1786 (vs. estimate at 7.2795)
The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading...
Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation for August 2023: 0.2% m/m (prior 0.8%)
Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation gauge for August 2023 rose 0.2% m/m in August (July was + 0.8%) And for the y/y, a jump to 6.1%prior 5.4%For underlying inflation the 'trimmed mean' came in at +0.1% m/m (prior +0.6%) and +5.7% y/y (prior +5.1%)in...
Moody’s cut its China economic growth forecast for 2024 to 4% (from 4.5% previously)
Moody's rating agency has downgraded its GDP forecast for China next year:the 2023 forecast remains at 5%2024 cut to 4% from 4.5% the firm was expecting previouslyMoody's reasoning that:China is facing "considerable growth challenges" stemming from weak business and...
Coming up from the RBA – Policy statement on September 5, Governor Lowe speaks on Sep 7
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the cash rate unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday, 5 September 2023. The Statement is due at 2.30 pm Sydney time:0430 GMT and 10.30 pm US Eastern time (on Monday, 4 September 2023)I posted a preview earlier:National...
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Nouriel Roubini says an equity market drop of 10% is not “totally unlikely”
Roubini was speaking with Bloomberg TV on Friday. Says that if economic data points towards weakness and central banks keep raising rates then H2 could bring a 10% 'correction' for stock markets. a 10% correction is not "totally unlikely""With core (inflation) being...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2795 – Reuters estimate
People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate...
‘Fed Watch’ tool now shows more than 90% chance the FOMC remains on hold in September
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is due on September 20 and will also include and updated Summary of Economic Projections.The CME 'Fed Watch' tool shows markets are pricing a 93% probability of no change to to the Fed Funds rate at this meeting....
Japan August monetary base +1.2% y/y (prior -1.3%)
The data point is not going to move the yen very much at all. If you are interested in what it is though, read on ...The monetary base, also known as "base money," "high-powered money," or "M0," refers to the total amount of a currency that is either in general...
Morgan Stanley forecasting that the European Central Bank will sop raising interest rates
Morgan Stanley has changed their forecast for the ECB. Analysts at the bank were expecting an ECB rate hike at the September ECB meeting but now says the rate hike cycle is over.Morgan Stanley cite data showing services inflation slowing in the euro area (drop in...
New Zealand Q2 terms of trade +0.4% q/q (expected -1.3%)
New Zealand Q2 terms of trade +0.4% q/q vs. expected -1.3%, prior -1.5%Export prices -0.6% q/qexpected -2.1%, prior -6.9%Import prices -1.0% q/qexpected -1.4%, prior -5.4%---Terms of trade refer to the ratio between the prices of a country's exports and the prices of...
USD/JPY is steady above 146.00 as early Tokyo opens following Friday’s wild ride
The yen is on the weak side again with USD/JPY sitting above 146.00 as I update.The long story short on USD/JPY is that higher US yields (with a gap between US 2- and Japanese 2-year yields not far from 500bps)the view that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)...
Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting coming up on Tuesday, hold expected – Preview
Commonwealth Bank of Australia preview the Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting, coming up on Tuesday September 5. The statement will be published at 2.30pm local time in Sydney, which is 0430 GMT and 2230 US Eastern time on Monday, 4 September 2023.the CPI...