Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts after yesterday’s RBA decision. In summary:
- cash rate steady at 4.10% in September, the third consecutive on hold decision
- A tightening bias was retained, with uncertainty around services inflation still top of mind.
- China risks were also noted.
- The RBA sound comfortable that higher interest rates are working and we expect the hurdle to hike again remains high.
- We expect 4.10%to be the peak in interest rates.
- The next move in the cash rate should be down. We expect the first rate cut in Q1 24. However the risks are for a later start to the easing cycle.
RBA decision ICYMI:
And, a different view:
The RBA cash rate vs. Australia’s inflation rate.