- Prior was +0.07 (revised to +0.14)
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to -0.15 in May from +0.14 in April, mainly due to decreases in production-related indicators. Two out of the four categories of indicators that shape the index fell from April, and three made negative contributions in May. However, the CFNAI’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) rose to -0.14 in May from -0.20 in April. Similarly, the CFNAI Diffusion Index increased to -0.09 in May from -0.14 in April. Out of the 85 individual indicators, 39 made positive contributions in May, and 38 improved from April. Meanwhile, 46 indicators had a negative impact, and 47 worsened. Key contributors to the CFNAI in May were production-related and employment-related indicators, which moved to -0.09 and -0.03 respectively, from +0.18 and +0.07 in April. The personal consumption and housing category’s contribution edged up to +0.02 in May from -0.01 in April.
The Chicago Fed’s national acitivity index is a composite of already-released data, so it’s not a market mover but it’s a decent look at the trend in the economy. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity
drawn from four broad categories of data:
1) production and income; 2) employment,
unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders,
and inventories.