China forbidden city
China’s “Two Sessions” policy meetings kick off on Monday with the microscope on the struggling economy and housing market.
Hopes have been mounting for stimulus since this time last year but piecemeal offerings have repeatedly disappointed the market. If there are no announcements this week, expect to see Chinese equities and risk trades tied to global growth slump late in the week.
Key announcements will include targets for GDP, employment and inflation. Those are set to be released on Thursday by Premier Li Qiang, who appears to be the leading figure who is pushing for more measures.
The consensus is that China will continue to aim for ‘around 5%’ GDP growth this year. If it’s above 5%, it could show some determination to boost growth, though that’s unlikely. Inflation is likely to be set at 3% again this year despite the undershoot in 2023.
In terms of properties, the market will be watching to see if Li leaves out a line that “houses are for living in, not for speculation.”
Finally, the deficit target was 3% last year but it was later raised to 3.8%. Anything bigger than 3% would be stimulative.