Even though the data found in these posts is of importance for China’s economic and policy outlook:
the most important data point is probably not found in these posts.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published population numbers showing China’s population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023, due to
- a record low birth rate
- a wave of COVID-19 deaths when strict lockdowns ended
- youth unemployment hit record highs
- wages for many white-collar workers declined
- the property sector, where more than two-thirds of household wealth is stored, slump intensified
A declining population, if its not reversed will have significant long-term effects on the economy’s growth potential. Japan springs to mind.
NBS numbers showed the total number of people in China dropped by 2.75 million, or 0.2%, to 1.409 billion in 2023. While that’s no reason to hit the panic button, if it continues it’ll have negative economic consequences. A key challenge China faces is that because of the earlier one-child policy, there are millions fewer women of childbearing age every year.