China published financing data for October on Monday, it was a bit of a mixed result. Justin had the data here:
New yuan loans in October came in at 738.4bn CNY
- beating the expected 665bn, and well down from September’s 2310bn
Total (aggregate) Social Financing came in at 1850bn CNY
- barely missing the expected at 1900bn CNY, and also well down from September’s 4120bn CNY
The dip for both of these measures in October from September can be attributed to a combination of:
- the September result was end-of-quarter which has a tendency to jump
- other seasonal factors
- both are volatile data series
The ‘but’ is that there may be more to it than that (i.e. a drying up of borrowing demand), however, given both were within a shade of estimates I’d be dismissing this more dire explanation.