Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists on the RBA meeting next week.
In summary from a longer piece:
- In another finely balanced decision,we expect the RBA to hike the cash rate one final time in August to 4.35%
- The RBA noted in July that fresh staff forecasts and the economic data flow would be available for the August decision.
- On balance we expect a still strong labour market and lingering concerns around the inflation and wages growth outlook will outweigh a slightly lower than expected June quarter inflation print and weak retail data
- An updated set of forecasts will be published by the RBA in the August Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday
- We expect the RBA to retain their forecast for headline and underlying inflation to only return to the top of the target band by mid-2025, despite the Q2 23 CPI printing a little softer than the RBA’s implied profile from the May SMP
- We expect the August rate increase to be the final rate hike in this cycle, with monetary policy easing to get under way in the first half of 2024
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The Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting is on Tuesday 1 August 2023. the statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time
- 0430 GMT
- 1230 am US Eastern time