- Revenue index +9.2 vs +10.1 prior
- Employment -0.2 vs +2.0 prior
- Wages and benefits 16.3 vs 12.3 prior
- Retail sales survey -11.4 vs -8.9 prior
Comments in the report:
Utilities
- We feel that the pace of general business has increased on the positive side.
Professional, scientific and technical services
- It’s very hard to tell if the delays in starting new projects are due to unease about the election and any disruptions in its aftermath–meaning things will go back to normal once the dust settles–or whether there is something more systemic going on that reflects a longer-term downturn in IT consulting demand.
- We saw a slight improvement in revenue. We are not sure it’s sustainable.
- We are seeing many cyber scams and phishing attempts. Scammers are getting very clever, and it’s more difficult to identify.
- Post-U.S. election, the U.S. and global economies are likely to improve, per our global customer feedback.
- Still fair amount of uncertainty, especially regarding availability of capital (debt and equity) to upstream oil and gas industry. We do retained search as well as outsource recruiting for companies that have consistent needs over an extended period of time. October was a tough month. As was September, but October was worse. This year has been difficult in general. We know that companies want and need to hire, but they don’t mind waiting for the right person to come along rather than using a proactive process that will save them a lot of time. We hope that after the elections, people will have an increased sense of stability and optimism.
- It is difficult to evaluate activity. We’re not sure if the hesitation about investment is because of the election, inflation or overbuilding of speculative industrial space.
- Our biggest limiting factor has been our ability to find good engineers. In the last couple of months, that seems to be getting easier. We have made some good movement in hiring.
- There is an increase in wire fraud, and we have hired a third-party company to help with this. This is an extra expense but one we feel is necessary to prevent theft. There is also an increase in identity fraud, specifically seller fraud. The change in labor laws has increased our employee expense as well.
- Business is slowing down noticeably.
- The election results or uncertainty around the results is making our clients hesitant to hire our company.
- The cost of labor in the food industry has forced the professional service industry to raise wages for entry-level workers to remain competitive. Meanwhile, high interest rates have caused many entities to slow delivery or stop construction and renovation projects, resulting in an overall slowing of business.
Management of companies and enterprises
- There’s an overwhelming amount of time and money spent trying to stay in compliance with rules and regulations.
- The election is so close. Once that is behind us, we are very optimistic, regardless of the candidate at the top of the ticket that wins the election.
Administrative and support services
- Expectation of lower interest rates looks promising. Recent increases in 10- and 20-year treasuries are concerning.
- Corporate travel tends to slow down in our market during the fourth quarter of federal election cycles.
- Difficult to fill in the circle on revenue and employee projections for six months from now when we are still not through the election. We are cautiously optimistic, but we are not investing in additional technology or tools until we can determine where the dust settles economically post-election. There has been a slight uptick in hiring from our clients; however, the roles are one-off, difficult-to-fill roles that require unique skill sets. We have not seen an uptick in hiring for professional mainstream roles in accounting, finance, HR, marketing or administrative capacities. Candidates are still receiving multiple offers because there is still a shortage of strong, experienced candidates for professional positions.
Educational services
- The political environment will remain highly uncertain until at least after the election, and possibly through January. This has some direct impact on our business.
Accommodation
- Our food cost continues to be high, especially for commodities like orange juice. Our outlook for the first quarter of 2025 is good but is being hurt by a renovation that will take out 60 rooms from our inventory beginning in early January.
Personal and laundry services
- We think there is uncertainty about the presidential election.
Rental and leasing services
- Blanket tariffs and mass deportations would be horrible for the Texas business community. We hope that professional economists will prevail over populists and keep the business conditions strong, regardless of who wins the general election.
Air transportation
- Hurricanes have impacted travel.
Support activities for transportation
- Uncertainty may not have changed, but optimism has improved.
Warehousing and storage
- We believe our outlook for the near and midterm remains pretty consistent. We do expect higher selling costs and costs to provide services, including the wages we pay, in the new year as inflation continues to put pressure on the business.
Publishing industries (except internet)
- Across 2024 we saw a slowdown in new business activity. We are hopeful that this turns around as optimism returns to the market. As a business-to-business company, we rely on the willingness and ability of companies to forward invest in new capabilities, which they have not and will not do in periods of economic uncertainty. We are still feeling the impacts of the rate environment and volatile consumer spending environment of the last 18 to 24 months. We are hopeful this will change, but we also believe that positive economic signals and appropriate Federal Reserve action are required in order to hasten the return of optimism.
Data processing, hosting, and related services
- As buyers wait to make decisions until after the election and any post-election repercussions, the market feels very soft. As such, our decisions on hiring and investments are on hold.
Credit intermediation and related activities
- Not sure the rate decrease was warranted at this time. Inflation has not been cooled far enough to say it will not come back, forcing rates even much higher in the future. If this happens the Federal Reserve will most certainly cause a recession.
- We are beginning to see an increase in the number of loan inquiries from commercial property owners who have bank loans with balloon maturities that the banks have previously been willing to roll over but are now unwilling. Historically, banks have been willing to extend maturities once or twice if a balance for a loan underwritten in a much lower interest rate environment cannot be refinanced in a higher interest rate environment absent a material paydown in the loan balance. We are also beginning to see commercial real estate investment brokers presenting sales packages on behalf of banks for real estate owned property. Most long-term lenders have not materially reduced their quoted interest rates in the past three weeks.
- We see a decrease in our costs due to a drop in our funding costs.
- The geopolitical environment has created unstable economic conditions, making a forecast hard to predict. The best tactic at the moment is to squat and wait. Consumers are suffering from the high cost of food products and the price jump in insurance premiums.
Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities
- We have not seen any change in current market conditions from September to October. We remain hopeful that we will eventually be able to resume business once we have more rate cuts, which will help improve financing costs for new development.
- Ag sector income is up slightly. Retail sales are flat, tourism is down slightly.
- We’re seeing general slowdown as we approach the election. Probably normal.
- Demand remains stable. Reduction in the federal funds rate by 50 basis points has improved business outlook, confidence and profitability.
Real estate
- It has been flat across the board.
- Buyers do not like uncertainty. Two wars going on is a concern for where to invest money.
- Folks are just grinding it out right now, not spending more than they have to, looking forward to additional rate decreases, hoping expectations don’t have to be lowered any further, and anxious to see what our next president will do.
- Capital markets conditions are improving for real estate dealmaking, and we expect 2025 to be an improvement over 2024.
Insurance carriers and related activities
- We’ll reassess next month after the election.
Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Electronics and appliance stores
- People with money are still sitting on the sidelines. People without money are suffering.
- Presidential election will cause some concern.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
- Trends are very concerning. Operating profits are down 20 percent. Gross revenue declined, and expenses are up significantly.
- Consumer traffic for higher cost products is decreasing. Our business is caught in the middle of inflated pricing, stubbornly high interest rates and high monthly payments.
Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods
- The election will bring change to the marketplace, no matter the outcome. If policies move toward a more protectionist bend (import tariffs), we could experience some blowback on our exports. If the dollar strengthens, we will see our customers trim their orders or order frequency. A weak dollar is good for our export business.
Nonstore retailers
- Hiring new truck drivers is the biggest problem our company faces. Our employees are aging, and we are worried for the future because we can’t find any qualified truck drivers. Part of the problem is the labor pool. One guy who applied had 20 jobs in 10 years. Also, it is competition with high oilfield salaries.
Food services and drinking places
- Lack of business travel to downtowns and general low office occupancy continue to impact revenue. Cost of goods sold and labor costs remain high. Insurance and other operating costs are increasing. This is one of the toughest markets we have endured in 45 years of operations.
- The election is impacting the outlook for the remainder of this year and next.
- Although we are concerned about the outcome of U.S. elections, we are hopeful the swing either way will not create more uncertainly in the economy. Election and tax policy are going to be key in determining future plans.