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Deutsche Bank US CPI preview – “event of the week” – Clear FOMC impact factor

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I posted a US CPI preview earlier:

The data is due at 8.30am user, which is 1230 GMT. Pic below of expected and priors:

  • The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result.
  • The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

After the strong NFP CPI has taken on even more importance:

Deutsche Bank heads up preview, bolding below is mine:

  • US CPI tomorrow is probably the event of the week in terms of potential vol as it could impact final pricing for the FOMC and impact terminal pricing as well.
  • The last swing factor for the FOMC will clearly be CPI … . In our economists preview here they are expecting a wafer thin +0.01% month-over-month advance for headline CPI (vs. +0.37% previously) and a +0.37% increase for core (vs. +0.41%). This would lead the former to drop by about a full percentage point to 4.0% YoY, with the latter down -0.2% to 5.3%, with the 3, 6 and 12 month core readings all still struggling to gain much downward momentum below 5% at the moment. For PPI the day after, DB expect the headline series (-0.2% vs. +0.2) to underperform the core component (+0.2% vs. +0.2%) due to energy prices.

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