In the big picture, markets are still very much caught in the battle of this narrative. It’s all about moving from one data to the next after the US CPI report last week, it was the dollar that broke down – owing much to a run in the technicals as well.
That hasn’t quite carried over to the new week yet but the dollar remains in a vulnerable spot. It is keeping more mixed today but the overall changes among major currencies are relatively light at best, with no firm convictions just yet. This comes as equities are also keeping more tepid while Treasury yields are a little lower on the day.
The dollar is down 0.2% against the euro and pound, and is down 0.3% against the yen at the moment. But it is keeping flat against the loonie while holding higher by 0.2% and 0.3% against the aussie and kiwi respectively. On the latter, it owes more to the softer Chinese yuan after the more disappointing Q2 GDP data here.
I’m going to be getting into the individual charts now but in essence, the dollar could be prone to another round of selling but not before we get through some key levels in certain charts – in particular USD/JPY and AUD/USD.