North Carolina is the first swing state to be called (by Decision Desk HQ) in favour of Trump and markets are responding accordingly. That being said, this is a test that Trump needs to pass in order to stand a chance at winning presidency. It was the only swing state that he defended back in 2020. And prior to Biden dropping, North Carolina wasn’t much of a ‘swing state’ as a Trump win was a given.
In any case, the win here is definitely a good sign especially as he looks to be taking it by a more comfortable margin than in 2020. Decision Desk HQ projects the gap to be at ~3 points this election. So, have the polls underestimated Trump’s support again?
It’s still too early to tell I would say but the early signs are at least positive for Trump. The other exit polls here sees Trump perhaps feeling better about the way things are playing out in Arizona but Michigan and Wisconsin are arguably too close to call. And the latter two are absolutely crucial.
As mentioned here, Harris just needs those two and Pennsylvania to almost certainly get over the 270 electoral votes line. So, keep a close eye on that.
For now, the betting markets and financial markets are all feeling good about Trump. But the same can be said for 2020, so we’ll see. The dollar is ramping higher now with USD/JPY closing in on 154.00 and EUR/USD down over 1.3% to 1.0785 currently. This comes as 10-year Treasury yields are also finding another leg up to near 4.43% on the day.
USD/JPY daily chart