Last Friday, the NFP report
massively beat forecasts with 336K jobs added against 170K expected. The
unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% and average hourly earnings were a
touch lower. Overall, the market viewed it as a good release with the
soft-landing narrative prevailing. Over the weekend, Hamas launched a big attack
against Israel which might cause some risk aversion in the
markets, although it’s likely to be short-lived as long as the conflict remains
in the Levant.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Dow Jones Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
rallied last Friday following the strong NFP report before pulling back a bit
into the close. The buyers might now be eyeing the resistance around
the 34000 level where we can find the confluence with the
trendline, the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. That
will be a strong level where the sellers will be leaning on to position for
another selloff into new lows.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Dow Jones 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
broke out of the downward trendline and the minor resistance around the 33258
defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. We might see this resistance
becoming support now with the buyers leaning on it to position for another
rally into the 34000 resistance.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Dow Jones 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the divergence with
the MACD was
signalling a loss of bearish momentum which is often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. The break of the trendline should point to a reversal and the target
should be the 34000 resistance. The support zone around the 32258 level will be
key now as a bounce should point to further upside, while a break lower is
likely to give back control to the sellers and lead to another drop into the
32600 level.
Upcoming Events
This week we have some important inflation reports. On
Wednesday, we will get the US PPI data and later in the day the FOMC Meeting
Minutes. On Thursday, it will be the time for the main release of the week,
that is the US CPI report, and at the same time we will see the latest Jobless
Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we will get the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment report.