- Prior decision
- Main refinancing rate 4.50% vs 4.50% expected
- Prior 4.50%
- Deposit facility rate 4.00% vs 4.00% expected
- Prior 4.00%
- Marginal lending facility 4.75%
- Prior 4.75%
- Incoming information has broadly confirmed previous assessment of medium-term inflation outlook
- Inflation is still expected to stay too high for too long
- Past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions
- This is increasingly dampening demand and thereby helps push down inflation
- Key interest rates re at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner
- Future decisions will ensure that policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary
- To continue data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction
- Full statement
There was a roughly 10-pip waffle in EUR/USD on the statement release but there isn’t anything new to take away from the statement here. The ECB has broken their record streak of rate hikes and markets are also convinced that they aren’t going to add any more considering the state of the economy at the moment.
The focus that the statement and what Lagarde is likely to say later on will be to ensure rates are higher for longer now.
And in the case of the ECB, it is about trying to get away with that for as long as they can to try and pin down inflation pressures as the economy teeters on the brink of a recession.