I shared some thoughts on the Fed decision here and how it is making for a bit of a tricky read into dollar sentiment at the moment. And that’s where we are as we approach European trading today.
The greenback is sort of in a bend but don’t break situation, with EUR/USD pushing back above its 100-day moving average of 1.0803 yesterday but then USD/JPY is holding the line at 140.00 before a sudden rally to above 141.00 in trading today.
Then, we have the likes of AUD/USD which has been threatening its April and May highs all week but is still indecisive about whether to chase any further upside. The pair is hovering at 0.6805 currently but the daily close is one to watch with key resistance still seen around the region of 0.6793-00 and then the May high of 0.6818.
Elsewhere, equities were initially spooked by the Fed decision but dragged itself off the floor before the end of the day – at least for tech stocks. The Dow still ended up down by 0.7% with the Nasdaq closing up by 0.4% instead.
Treasury yields were caught in a whipsaw but are slowly making their way higher again today. 2-year yields are up 4 bps to 3.748% while 10-year yields are up 3 bps to 3.829% at the moment.
The bond market will stay in focus as we look towards the ECB policy decision later. A 25 bps rate hike is pretty much a given now and there will be no surprises there. I would expect the ECB messaging and communique to continue as it is, with Lagarde to reaffirm another rate hike to come in July.
That said, she should fall short of pre-committing to anything after that or might even stress on data dependency even before next month. That might produce some downside risk for the euro and regional bond yields before the end of the week.
0630 GMT – Switzerland May producer and import prices
0645 GMT – France May final CPI figures
0900 GMT – Eurozone April trade balance data
1215 GMT – ECB announces its June monetary policy decision
1245 GMT – ECB president Lagarde press conference
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.