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ECB’s Kazaks: Market bets on rate cuts in early 2024 are wrong

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  • Sees rate hikes going past July as inflation remains too high
  • Softness of the economy is unlikely to deal with inflation
  • There are still strong risks of persistence in inflation
  • Don’t think that in July we’ll be comfortable enough to say “we’re done”

Until we get to the July decision in itself, don’t expect ECB policymakers to relent on the hawkish rhetoric. But the recent economic figures for June does warrant some consideration, especially if the trend continues into the summer.

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