- 46 of 73 economists see first ECB rate cut in June
- 17 economists expect first rate cut in April
- 10 economists expect first rate cut to only come in 2H 2024
- Median call is for 100 bps worth of rate cuts this year, taking deposit rate to 3% by year-end
Despite a growing consensus for a June call, economists are still having some slight doubts on their conviction. Roughly 55% majority of respondents say that the more likely risk surrounding the timing of the first rate cut would be for it to come earlier than they expect.
That being said, at least there is some synchronicity to market pricing now with the June call rising to 63% from 45% in the January poll. As for market pricing, odds of an April rate cut have now been reduced to just ~26%. Meanwhile, the odds of a June move are at ~92%.