The dollar managed to pare a chunk of its losses late yesterday in US trading and that is seeing EUR/USD keep below 1.0900 still despite the bounce yesterday. The pair is trading little changed today as all eyes turn towards the ECB policy decision later. Here’s the big picture look for the pair currently:
EUR/USD daily chart
As you can see, the bounces in the last two weeks are technical-related. It comes amid a test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) and that will remain the key line in the sand ahead of the ECB today. The level sits at 1.0843 at the moment.
Despite the push higher yesterday, buyers failed to hang on to a breach above the 1.0900 mark. That subsequently led to a fall back below both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages as well, seen at 1.0883-90 now. As such, the near-term bias has returned to favour sellers as we gear towards European trading now.
The key risk event for the euro today will be the ECB policy decision. The central bank is expected to stick with the status quo and leave rates unchanged, while preaching the mantra of being data-dependent. ECB president Lagarde’s press conference will be the main thing to watch. Any change in her language or tone and pushback on market pricing will be the points of scrutiny for traders.
As for the dollar side of the equation, the push and pull in the bond market is certainly not making things any easier so far this week. For now, 10-year yields are still keeping above the 200-day moving average of 4.10%. That continues to give dollar bulls a reason to keep the currency in a more resilient spot on the week.