Going into the Fed this week, the pair had been threatening key support levels on the chart. The 200-day moving average (blue line) was where buyers drew the line and they were rewarded amid a more dovish take by Fed chair Powell yesterday. That helps to oversee a rebound back above the 1.0900 mark in the aftermath.
EUR/USD daily chart
As the dollar is stumbling across the board, the near-term bias for EUR/USD also turns more bullish now. The rebound higher sees a push above the key hourly moving averages at 1.0879-03. That reaffirms that buyers are now in near-term control again. So, what’s next for the pair?
There is minor daily resistance near 1.0950 and that will come alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 1.0969. That is the next key resistance region to watch for the pair.
For trading today, we’ll also be getting the preliminary March PMI data for the euro area. In the months before, this data set tends to be one that has a decent impact on the euro. But for this month, I’d argue that it will be less so.
As things stand, traders are pricing in ~86% odds of a June rate cut already. And the ECB has been quite explicit in recent times to talk up a first rate cut for June as well. However, policymakers have also made it clear that they are carefully watching wages data more than anything else currently. That was reaffirmed by Lagarde in her comments yesterday here.
Barring any major surprises, we are likely to see minimal reaction in the euro to the data later as such. If anything else, the data should just help to reaffirm that the ECB is on track for a June rate cut.