EURUSD daily
The euro is struggling today as the US dollar gains broadly on a painful turn in the risk trade.
What looked like a breakout to a one-year high only a week ago is now looking suspect. The euro easily fell back below the December highs and took out 1.1050 today.
Next is the 1.1000 level, which has been a pivot point for the euro for more than a year. I expect the bulls to make a strong stand there but it’s going to largely depend on the risk trade and how central banks react this month.
If the market gets a sense that central bankers want to be proactive and kick off a global growth cycle, it will help the euro but it’s a fine line as they continue to lick the wounds of missing the inflation move in 2021-23. Growth is struggling in Europe but showing some life and that’s led to a rally in European shares, including a record high in the DAX last week.
The best thing that Europe has going for it is low expectations but that doesn’t mean they will be exceeded. Governments are facing pressure to balance budgets despite poor growth and Europe has few entrants in the AI race along with plenty of political instability.