There are quite a few things at play in markets at the moment. For one, the dollar is firmer as the Fed notes that its supposed ‘base case scenario’ is not for a rate cut in March. EUR/USD is once again testing 1.0800 now ahead of European trading. However, Treasuries are doing their own thing with yields dropping heavily and that is putting a drag on USD/JPY in particular. The pair fell from 147.80 yesterday and is now little changed today at 146.90.
In the equities space, investors are heeding the warning from the Fed with stocks selling off yesterday. But in the commodities space, gold is making decent headway in a climb back above $2,040 amid lower yields.
So, there are definitely some mixed elements across asset classes this week. That being said, it was month-end yesterday and that might have something to do with the more intricate flows. If so, we’ll have to see how things play out in the days ahead.
Looking to European trading, there will be some big items on the agenda in the session to come. The first will be the Eurozone CPI data for January. It is expected to reaffirm slightly softer price pressures, giving the ECB more flexibility in managing their policy pivot. Well, at least for now.
The next key risk event will be the BOE monetary policy meeting. And I shared some thoughts on that earlier here.
Both of that will keep the euro and pound in focus before traders get swept up again by the pre-NFP lull ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow.
0815 GMT – Spain January manufacturing PMI
0830 GMT – Switzerland January manufacturing PMI
0845 GMT – Italy January manufacturing PMI
0850 GMT – France January final manufacturing PMI
0855 GMT – Germany January final manufacturing PMI
0900 GMT – Eurozone January final manufacturing PMI
0930 GMT – UK January final manufacturing PMI
1000 GMT – Eurozone January preliminary CPI figures
1000 GMT – Eurozone December unemployment rate
1200 GMT – BOE announces its February monetary policy decision
1230 GMT – US January Challenger job cuts, layoffs
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.