EURUSD falls from the 61.8% retracement
The EURUSD has traded to a new session low of 1.09244. That took out the Asian session low of 1.0926. The low-to-high trading range is still narrow at 34 pips. That compares to 72 pips average over the last 22 trading days (about a month of trading). There is room to room.
Looking at the 4-hour chart above, the high price today stalled right near the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July 18 high at 1.09589. Last week, the price high for the week stalled at 1.0963. The break above the 61.8% retracement failed.
Today’s high found willing sellers against that retracement level. Sellers leaned.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, although a new low was reached, the momentum is not exactly running. It would take a move below the 100-hour moving average 1.09153 followed by a move below the 200-hour moving average 1.0901, to increase the bearish bias (blue and green lines on the chart below). Going back to October 10 and October 13, the price peeked below the lower 200-hour MA but only by a few pips before bouncing higher.
The last time the price traded below both MAs for an extended time period was back on November 1.
Sellers are trying to make a play but they have work to do. The good news is there is room to roam with the range only 34 pips. The bad news is there just isn’t a lot of momentum.