The first significant supply of Treasuries comes to the market this week, with a trio or auctions starting on Tuesday.
All the auctions are at the usual time at 1 pm ET:
- Tuesday $52 billion in 3s
- Wednesday $37 billion in 10s
- Thursday $21 billion in 30s
Treasury yields have softened so far this year but I think that’s more about Fed pricing than supply. The market had seen as much as 160 bps in easing this year but that’s pared back to 135 bps as the market mulls over where the Fed will start in March (60% priced) or later. There’s also a sense that the move down to 3.8% in 10s from 5.0% ran too far, too fast.
On Wednesday, we’ll see where real money stands on 10s but many people are certainly kicking themselves for not locking in at 5%.
US 10s daily