The US economic calendar is light today and so market action will be the focus.
So far, there has been a retracement in yields after last week’s sharp fall. US 2-year yields and 10-year yields are up 6 bps to 4.89% and 4.61%, respectively. I think we trace out a range of 4.50-4.75% in 10s in the short term as the market digests the latest moves. There’s some US supply coming (3s, 10s and 30s this week) and some corporates have jumped on the latest dip in yields to announce supply as well.
In terms of the Fed, cut pricing for 2024 is down to 90 bps from 100 bps. For now, I think 100 bps is the limit of what we can price in without starting to see some poor economic data or signs of a sharp fall in inflation. Oil helped on that front last week and natural gas is down 5% today on warm December weather forecasts but energy along isn’t going to do it.
US 10 year yields daily
One event to watch out for today is the US senior loan officer survey, as indications of tighter lending could give the Fed more confidence that it’s gone far enough.