FBS
analysts project a looming downturn for Bitcoin as the market players await the
upcoming Federal Reserve’s key rate cut in 2024. This tendency signals the
rising probability of the BTCUSD’s closing bullish trend, as rate hikes
frequently influence risk assets such as Bitcoin.
The
Federal Reserve’s key rate, a pivotal factor determining the minimum interest
rate for interbank lending, plays a substantial role in shaping the financial
landscape. Market participants have observed a correlation between the Federal
Reserve’s key rate peaks and the decline of risk assets, including
Bitcoin.
As FBS analysts review
Bitcoin’s behavior from 2017 to 2020, they point out a remarkable 370% surge in
early 2019 to 13,000 USD or the 61.8 Fibonacci level, following public
anticipation of the rate cuts. However, the trend reversed as the rates started
declining, leading to bearish BTCUSD.
The
2021-2024 scenario witnessed the Federal Reserve’s increasing interest rates to
combat inflation. Despite initial expectations of such rate hikes dampening the
demand for risk assets, Bitcoin’s value surprisingly increased. The market
dynamics shifted following the Fed’s announcement of a pause in rate hikes in
September 2023, with markets pricing in an upcoming rate decline.
Looking
at the 2024 financial market trends, FBS analysts point out the striking
similarities with Bitcoin’s 2017-2020 pattern. They mainly highlight that
BTCUSD reached the 61.8 Fibonacci level at around 49,000 USD and subsequently
bounced off, coinciding with market expectations of the potential rate cut by
the Federal Reserve.
Considering
substantial parallels with the past, FBS analysts anticipate a decline in
Bitcoin’s price towards the 36,000 USD target after the first Fed rate cut in
2024. Moreover, if BTCUSD loses this support, it may drop to 31,000 USD and
even 25,000 USD support levels.
This
scenario underscores a crucial aspect often overlooked in market cycles. While
there is anticipation that a key rate cut will positively impact prices of
risky assets like Bitcoin, it is imperative to recognize the fundamental factor
that such cuts typically occur in the face of economic stagnation and
decelerating growth, prompting panic selling and the disposal of risky assets.
Disclaimer:
This material does not constitute a call to trade, trading advice or
recommendation and is intended for informational purposes only.