Fed Gov. Lisa Cook
Fed’s Cook is on the wires saying:
-
I believe that a soft landing is possible
-
Risks are two-sided, must balance risk of not tightening policy enough against risk of doing too much
-
There’s a risk that continued demand momentum could slow pace of disinflation
-
Small business conditions, housing sector. Lower-income households may be signaling loader stress ahead
-
Also attentive to risk of renewed global economic shocks, including geopolitical and muted growth in China, Europe
-
Fed policies have spillovers abroad
-
Concurrent global central bank tightening may mean each central bank need do a bit
-
Supply chain improvements, drop in commodity prices has also helped inflation’s fall
-
Increased multifamily housing supply will contribute to the expected further reduction in inflation
-
Labor supply, demand coming into better balance
Lisa Cook is a Governor on the Federal Open Market Committee and as such as a permanent vote for policy..
The last tightening has been priced out of the market for 2023 after the CPI. The focus is now on rate cut probabilities. March has a 35% probability of a cut, while May is up to 68%.
Fed cut probabilities are increasing