Phillip Jefferson
- Holding US central bank policy rate constant at the current meeting should not be taken to mean rates have reached a peak for this tightening cycle
- Skipping a rate increase at coming meeting would allow Fed officials to see more data before deciding on extent of additional tightenings
- Monetary policy works with a lag, and a year is not long enough to feel the full effect
- Base case Outlook is not for recession
- Higher interest rates and lower earnings could test the ability of businesses to service debt
- Inflation remains too high in progress by some measures has been slowing
- Impact of tighter credit on the economy rate remains uncertain
Fed June rate hike now seen at 33% based on Fed funds futures down from 67% chance seen before feds at Jefferson’s remarks