Today’s economic calendar is the busiest one of the week.
EU Session:
During the European session we’ll get the latest round of flash HICP data for Spain and Germany. With markets fairly optimistically priced about the ECB rate path (at least relative to that of the Fed), a big miss in the data might could offer a bit of headwind to the recent EUR optimism.
Also worth keeping in mind that we get the German statewide CPI releases a few hours ahead of the German total CPI data, which can sometimes see some volatility from the statewide releases depending on the deviations of course.
German statewide and regional print
US Session:
During the US session the focus will be on 2nd estimate of US GDP for Q2, with the main event being the latest release of weekly claims data.
The market has been more sensitive to bad claims data (higher numbers) than it has to the recent good prints (lower numbers). I don’t suspect that part to have changed today, with arguably a great chance of increased volatility on a surprise pop higher compared to a push lower.
Anything close to or above the recent high of 250 could get money markets excited about increased prospects of a 50bp cut.
US initial claims