The FOMC dot plot from December 2024 showed the median rate at the end of 2024 at 4.6%. In the March report:
- For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is now 4.6% vs 4.6% in December
- For 2025, the median fed funds target rate is now 3.9% vs 3.6% in December
- For 2026, the median fed funds target rate is now 3.1% vs 2.9% in December
Below is the new dot plot from March 2024:
For comparison, the dot plot from December 2023 showed the following:
The Dot plot from December 2023
Regarding the central tendencies for GDP, Unemployment and PCE inflation (headline and core) below is the table with comparisons from December:
Fed Central Tendencies from March 2024
Highlights from the central tendencies:
- PCE inflation for 2024 unchanged at 2.4%
- Core PCE inflation for 2024 moved higher from 2.4% to 2.6%
- Unemployment for 2024 moved lower from 4.1% to 4.0%
- GDP for 2024 moved higher from 1.4% to 2.1%
The USD has moved lower.
- EURUSD moved from 1.08652 to the current rate of 1.0876
- USDJPY moved from 151.59 to the current rate of 151.48
- GBPUSD moved from 1.2719 to the current rate of 1.2740
- USDCHF moved from 0.8906 to the current rate of 0.8894
- USDCAD moved from 1.3550 to the current rate of 1.3530
in the US stock market
- S&P index moved from 5174.17 to 5196.17
- NASDAQ index moved from 16158.70 to 16254.59
- Dow moved from 39107 to 39245
US yields moved lower:
- 2year yield, 4.672% moved to 4.634%
- 5-year yield 4.283% moved to 4.258%
- 10 year yield 4.280% moved to 4.276%
- 30-year yield 4.431% moved to 4.448%
About 80 basis points of a cuts are priced in the market from 75 basis points before the release