In the US today, the stock and bond markets were closed (as were major futures markets) due to the Martin Luther King holiday. As a result, price action was limited in the forex market.
Looking at the major currencies, the low to high trading ranges were on the low side (the EURUSD only had a 34 pip range vs a 73 pip average over the last 22 trading days). The only major pair above its 22-day average was the NZDUSD with a 59 pip range.
Overall, the USD was higher on the day vs all the major currencies with the exception of the EUR where it was near unchanged..
- GBP, +0.20%
- JPY +0.61%
- CHF, +0.45%
- CAD, +0.14%
- AUD, +0.40%
- NZD, +0.70%
Canada was not on holiday and they announced manufacturing sales at 1.2% vs 1.1%. The commodity currencies all moved lower after the PBOC kept rates unchanged.
In the EU, ECBs Holzman and Nagel said that rate cuts were still a ways off. Holzman said that the market should not count on rate cuts at all this year. Nagel was a bit more open saying it is too early to talk about rate cuts.
Technically, both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD are trading between the 100 and 200 hour MAs to ent the trading day indicative of a market that is unsure of the next technical move (see video here) . The USDJPY moved higher as Japan’s 2 year yield moved below 0.0% for the first time since July 2023. The EURJPY and the GBPJPY are higher as carry trade flows dominate Recall, that the recent wage data was softer than expected out of Japan and that has traders thinking that BOJ shift in policy may still be a ways away.